{"msg": "098\nAXNT20 KNHC 132105\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Mon Sep 14 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n2000 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA central Atlantic tropical wave is along 44W, south of 17N, \nmoving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated \nstrong convection is found from 12N to 16N between 43W and 47W.\nAnother central Atlantic tropical wave is along 49.5W, south of \n18N, moving westward at around 15 kt. A few showers are found \nnear this wave.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 19N16W and continues\nsouthwestward to 08N36W to 10N51W. The ITCZ extends from 10N51W \nto near 12N61W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection \nis observed from 04N to 11N between Africa and 44W. Similar\nconvection is noted near the Lesser Antilles from 11N to 17N\nbetween 54W and 66W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nScattered showers and thunderstorms are noted on satellite imagery\nover the SE Gulf toward Tampa Bay, Florida southward to the\nFlorida Keys with a surface trough over the interior peninsula.\nIsolated to widely scattered showers are also found from 24N to\n28N between 87W and 97W due to moist SW flow. Otherwise, a 1018 mb\nhigh is at the surface, analyzed near 28N87W. A weak pressure\npattern prevails over the basin with light to gentle anticyclonic\nflow over the NE half of the basin along with 1-2 ft seas, and \nmoderate SE flow over the SW half of the basin along with 2-4 ft\nseas.\nFor the forecast, weak high pressure centered over the NE Gulf \nwill continue to support relatively tranquil conditions to most of\nthe waters into Tue. The exception will be the Bay of Campeche, \nwhere a diurnal trough will move westward offshore the Yucatan \nPeninsula each evening, bringing nightly pulses of fresh NE winds.\nStarting late Tue, stronger high pressure building southward from\nthe eastern United States will lead to increasing NE to E winds \nover the basin, with speeds reaching fresh to strong and rough \nseas over the northern Gulf Wed through Thu night.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nOther than the convection mentioned above, scattered moderate to\nstrong convection is in the SW Caribbean south of 12N near the\nmonsoon trough extending from the NE Pacific Ocean. A tight \npressure gradient is between the subtropical ridge north of the \nislands and lower pressures in Colombia which continues to sustain \nstrong to near gale-force NE-E winds over much of the central \nCaribbean. Rough seas are occurring in these waters. Fresh to \nstrong NE-E winds and seas of 4-7 ft are found in the Windward \nPassage and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to locally fresh easterly \nwinds and moderate seas are evident elsewhere south of 18N,\nincluding the eastern Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and \nslight to moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the basin.\nFor the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a subtropical\nridge north of the islands and lower pressures associated with \nthe Colombian Low will continue to support strong to near-gale \neasterly trade winds and rough seas over the central Caribbean for\nthe next several days. Strong winds are expected tonight in the \nGulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly breezes \nare expected over the next few days in the eastern Caribbean. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nOf note, Meteo-France has issued a gale warning for the ongoing \neasterly gap wind event over the Straits of Gibraltar. This\nwarning will continue through 14/06Z.\nA weak surface trough is analyzed in the central Atlantic from\n29N47W to 20N43W with isolated to scattered moderate convection \nwithin 180 nm mainly east of the trough. Otherwise, 1019 mb high \npressure is analyzed at 27N69W with only isolated convection found\nacross the remainder of the basin aside from the tropical waves \nand monsoon trough/ITCZ discussed above. A rather weak pressure \ngradient dominates the tropical Atlantic with moderate or weaker \nwinds across the waters, except moderate to fresh in the NE \nwaters, and fresh winds from northern Hispaniola to the Windward \nPassage. Seas of 3-4 ft dominate the waters north of 10N and west \nof 55W across the offshore waters zones, and 4-locally 6 ft \nelsewhere. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, trades north of Hispaniola into the\nWindward Passage will be fresh into Mon. On Tue, strong high \npressure building southward through the eastern United States will\nbring a cold front into the NW waters, increasing NE winds to \nfresh to locally strong and causing seas to build to rough N of \nthe Bahamas and W of 70W through Wed night. During the middle to \nlater portion of the week, a trough of low pressure is forecast to\nmove west- northwestward into the NE portion of the waters, \nbringing thunderstorms. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1210001410861367298", "issued": "2026-09-13T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1210001410861367298"}