{"msg": "700\nAXPZ20 KNHC 132046\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Sun Sep 13 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2030 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Norbert is centered near 18.8N 134.0W at 13/2100\nUTC, moving west-northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with\ngusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are 17 to 18 ft, or 5.5 m. Numerous \nmoderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 120 nm in\nthe NW semicircle of Norbert. Norbert is moving toward the west-\nnorthwest, and a west-northwestward to westward motion is \nexpected during the next few days. Some fluctuations in \nintensity remain possible for the rest of the day, followed by a \ngradual weakening trend after that.\nNewly upgraded Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is centered near\n17.2N 117.2W at 13/2100 UTC, moving west at 7 kt. Estimated \nminimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed\nis 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are 8 to 11 ft. Numerous\nmoderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 300 nm \nin the SE quadrant and 690 nm in the SW quadrant. The depression\nis moving toward the west. A slightly faster westward to west-\nsouthwestward motion is forecast during the couple of days. Some\nslight strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and\nthe depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or\nMon.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nLowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details on both systems.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 99W from 03N to 14N to just offshore \nand southwest of Oaxaca, Mexico, moving west at around 20 kt. \nAssociated convection is described below in the ITCZ/Monsoon \nTrough section.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 1007 mb low pressure in the SW\nCaribbean Sea at 10N77W to 05.5N105.5W to 09N112W, then resumes\nfrom 15N119W to 10N128W, then resumes from 16N134W to 11N140W. \nIn addition to the convection associated with T.S. Norbert and\nT.D Fifteen-E, scattered moderate convection is active from 02N \nto 12N between 77W and 131W. Similar convection is noted within \n120 nm of the coast of Mexico between 93W and 99W, and between \n103W and 106W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information \nabout recently upgraded Tropical Depression Fifteen-E.\nFresh N gap winds are across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere,\ngentle to moderate breezes and 3-6 ft seas prevail across \nMexican offshore waters, with 1-3 ft seas in the Gulf of \nCalifornia.\nFor the forecast, Fifteen-E will strengthen to a tropical storm\nas it moves away from the area to near 17.0N 118.2W Mon morning,\nthen move farther away to 16.7N 119.8W Mon afternoon. Elsewhere, a\nridge will build across the offshore waters of Baja California, \nbringing moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds through the \nearly part of the week. Expect fresh winds across the northern \nGulf of California through the early part of the week due to the \npressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over the \nColorado River valley, locally strong Mon night. Winds will\nfreshen again off Baja California by the end of the week, locally\nstrong near Punta Eugenia. Strong to near-gale N gap winds will \npulse again in the Tehuantepec region beginning tonight, with \nbuilding seas of 8 to 10 ft at times. Meanwhile, rough seas will \nbuild well offshore Baja California Norte tonight through Mon \nnight.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nHigh pressure north of the area is promoting fresh to strong \neasterly trade winds and locally rough seas across the Gulf of \nPapagayo region, extending downstream to near 90W. Elsewhere, \nmoderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent, except\nslight seas offshore Colombia and Panama. Convection continues \nto develop on either side of the monsoon trough. Gusty winds and \nhigher seas are likely occurring near thunderstorms. \nFor the forecast, the ridge north of the area will continue to \nsupport pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate to \nrough seas across the Papagayo region through early Thu, then\npulsing to moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate to locally \nfresh N winds may pulse in the Gulf of Panama at night into early\nThu. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere along with\nmoderate seas, except locally rough southwest of the Galapagos\nIslands through Mon, and slight offshore Colombia and eastern\nPanama.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information \nabout Tropical Storm Norbert and recently upgraded Tropical \nDepression Fifteen-E.\nAway from the impacts of T.S. Norbert and T.D. Fifteen-E, mainly\nmoderate to fresh winds cover the waters north of 16N and west of\n115W. Moderate to fresh SE-S winds and rough seas are found south\nof 04N between 95W and 130W. Winds are moderate or weaker\nelsewhere with moderate seas.\nFor the forecast, Norbert will move to 19.2N 136.0W Mon morning,\n19.7N 138.6W Mon afternoon, 20.2N 141.4W Tue morning, weaken to \na tropical depression near 20.7N 144.0W Tue afternoon, become a \nremnant low and move to 20.8N 146.9W Wed morning, and dissipate \nWed afternoon. Meanwhile, Fifteen-E will strengthen to a \ntropical storm near 17.0N 118.2W Mon morning, move to 16.7N \n119.8W Mon afternoon, 16.5N 121.6W Tue morning, weaken to a \ntropical depression near 16.4N 123.6W Tue afternoon, 16.3N 125.7W\nWed morning, and 16.1N 128.1W Wed afternoon. Fifteen-E will \nbecome a remnant low as it moves to 16.0N 133.0W Thu afternoon.\nElsewhere, a cross equatorial swell will persist over the next \nseveral days producing seas to 9 ft south of 04N. A tight \npressure gradient will result in locally fresh N winds and rough \nseas in the N-central/NE waters through the early part of the \nweek. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1209997799540948994", "issued": "2026-09-13T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1209997799540948994"}