{"id": "1209995682493366274", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-13T21:00:00Z", "msg": "351\nWTPZ45 KNHC 132036\nTCDEP5\n \nTropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152026\n200 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2026\n\nDeep convection became more persistent overnight and this \nmorning in association with the area of low pressure (EP97) located \nsouthwest of the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula.  The system is \nbeing affected by moderate west-northwesterly shear, and the center \nhas recently become exposed to the northwest of the area of deep \nconvection.  Regardless of the exposed center, subjective Dvorak \nT-numbers increased to T1.5 at 18z with data T-numbers slightly \nhigher.  Therefore, advisories are being initiated on a 30-kt \ntropical depression. \n\nThe environment ahead of the depression is not expected to be \nconducive for significant strengthening.  However, most of the \nintensity guidance calls for the system to reach tropical storm \nstrength within the next day or so.  By 48 hours, continued \nmoderate shear and drier mid-level air are expected to cause gradual \nweakening.  Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF show \nthe deep convection waning in 3 to 4 days and the system is likely \nto become a remnant low during that time.  The global models \nindicate that the system will become an open trough before the\nend of the 5-day forecast period, and the official forecast follows \nsuit. \n\nThe depression is moving generally westward or 260/7 kt.  A \nmid-level ridge to the north and northwest of the system is expected \nto steer it south of due west during the next few days.  The \nguidance suggests the forward speed will increase, especially \ntoward the end of the period when the cyclone weakens and becomes \neven more vertically shallow.  The NHC forecast follows the faster \nsolutions of the typically reliable GDM and HCCA consensus aids. \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  13/2100Z 17.2N 117.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  14/0600Z 17.0N 118.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  14/1800Z 16.7N 119.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  15/0600Z 16.5N 121.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  15/1800Z 16.4N 123.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 60H  16/0600Z 16.3N 125.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  16/1800Z 16.1N 128.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  17/1800Z 16.0N 133.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}