{"msg": "927\nAXNT20 KNHC 131634\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Sun Sep 13 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1634 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA central Atlantic tropical wave is along 43W, south of 16N, \nmoving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated \nstrong convection is found from 05N to 15N between 38W and 45.5W. \nAnother central Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W, south of \n17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. A few showers are found near \nthis wave.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 19N16W and continues\nsouthwestward to 08N30W and then to 11N50W. The ITCZ extends from\n11N50W to near 12N60W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong \nconvection is observed from 04N to 12N and west of 40W. Similar\nconvection is found from 11N to 13N between 57.5W and the Lesser\nAntilles. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nIsolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms prevail from \n23.5N to 28.5N between the west coast of Florida and the coast of\nTexas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also \npresent over the Bay of Campeche. \nA weak pressure gradient supports moderate SE winds and seas 3 to\n5 ft over the Bay of Campeche and over the western Gulf. Elsewhere,\nunder the broad ridge, light to gentle winds and slight seas \nprevail.\nFor the forecast, weak high pressure centered over the NE Gulf \nwill continue to support relatively tranquil conditions to most of\nthe waters into Tue. The exception will be the Bay of Campeche, \nwhere a diurnal trough will move westward offshore the Yucatan \nPeninsula each evening, bringing nightly pulses of fresh NE winds.\nStarting late Tue, stronger high pressure building southward from\nthe eastern United States will lead to increasing NE to E winds \nover the basin, with speeds reaching fresh to strong and rough \nseas over the northern Gulf Wed into Thu night.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nAn upper- level trough over the north-central Caribbean is \nhelping to induce a few showers and thunderstorms over the eastern\nCaribbean. Similar convection is found in the SW Caribbean. \nThe tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north \nof the islands and lower pressures in Colombia sustain strong to \nnear gale-force NE-E winds over much of the central Caribbean. \nRough to very rough seas are occurring in these waters. Fresh to \nstrong NE-E winds and seas of 4-7 ft are found in the Windward \nPassage and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to locally fresh easterly \nwinds and moderate seas are evident in the eastern Caribbean. \nElsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas \nprevail. \nFor the forecast, the aforementioned tight pressure gradient will\ncontinue to support strong to near- gale easterly trade winds and\nrough to locally very rough seas over the central Caribbean for \nthe next several days. Strong winds are expected this morning and \ntonight in the Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh \neasterly breezes are expected over the next few days in the \neastern Caribbean. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA deep layered upper-level trough extends from the central \nAtlantic near 31N45W southwestward to near Jamaica, and is \nsupporting several areas of isolated showers. A low to middle \nlevel trough is supporting scattered moderate convection from 23N\nto 31N between 36W and 47W. \nA 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 34N45W and is producing \nlight anticyclonic flow N of 23N and W of 48W. Lingering isolated \nshowers continue over the western Atlantic north fo the Bahamas. A\npair of weak stationary fronts north of the area aid in separating\nthe western Atlantic ridge from stronger high pressure across the\nNE and E Atlantic. A 1026 mb high pressure centered NE of the \nAzores extends a ridge southwestward to 24N40W. The pressure \ngradient between this ridge and lower pressure across NW Africa is\nproducing fresh to locally strong N to NE winds from offshore of \nEurope along 35N through the Canary Islands. Seas are 5 to 7 ft \nacross this area. Elsewhere across the tropical Atlantic moderate \nto locally fresh trade winds prevail S of 23N between 28W and the \nLesser Antilles. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across this zone. To the north\nof these trades, winds are moderate or less with seas 4 ft or \nless. \nOf note, Meteo-France has issued a gale warning for the ongoing \neasterly gap wind event over the Straits of Gibraltar. This\nwarning will continue through 14/06Z.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, trades north of Hispaniola into the\nWindward Passage will be fresh to locally strong into Mon. On \nTue, strong high pressure building southward through the eastern \nUnited States will bring a cold front into the NW waters, \nincreasing NE winds to fresh to locally strong and causing seas to\nbuild to rough N of the Bahamas and W of 70W Tue through Wed \nnight. During the middle to later portion of the week, a trough of\nlow pressure is forecast to move west-northwestward into the NE \nportion of the waters, bringing thunderstorms.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1209948219023360002", "issued": "2026-09-13T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1209948219023360002"}