{"msg": "625\nAXNT20 KNHC 130929\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Sun Sep 13 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0925 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA central Atlantic tropical wave is along 42W, south of 16N,\nmoving westward at 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong \nconvection is found within 120 nm on both sides of the trough \naxis.\nAnother central Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W, south of 17N,\nmoving westward at 15-20 kt. A few showers are found near this\nwave.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea\nnear 13N16W and continues WSW to 09N27W and then to 11N44W. The \nITCZ extends from 10N47W to the coast of NE Venezuela near \n10.5N63W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is\nobserved within 120 nm on both sides of the monsoon trough and\nITCZ.\n \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA 1017 mb high pressure system over central Florida and lower\npressures over Mexico supports moderate to locally fresh easterly\nwinds and moderate seas in the south-central Gulf waters. \nModerate E-SE winds and seas of 2-4 ft are found in the western \nGulf. Elsewhere, under the broad ridge, light to gentle winds and \nslight seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, weak high pressure over central Florida will\ncontinue to support relatively tranquil conditions to the Gulf \nwaters into Tue. The exception will be the Bay of Campeche, where \na diurnal trough will move westward offshore the Yucatan Peninsula\neach evening, bringing nightly pulses of fresh to locally strong \nNE winds. Starting late Tue, stronger high pressure building \nsouthward from the eastern United States will lead to increasing \nNE to E winds over the basin, with speeds reaching fresh to strong\nforce and rough seas over the northern Gulf Wed and Thu. \nConditions will improve late this week.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nThe tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of\nthe islands and lower pressures in Colombia sustain strong to near\ngale-force NE-E winds over much of the central Caribbean. Rough to\nvery rough seas are occurring in these waters. Fresh to strong\nNE-E winds and seas of 4-8 ft are found in the Windward Passage\nand Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and\nmoderate seas are evident in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere,\nmoderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. \nAn upper- level trough over the north-central Caribbean is \nhelping to induce a few showers and thunderstorms over the eastern\nCaribbean. Similar convection is found in the SW Caribbean. \nFor the forecast, the aforementioned tight pressure gradient will\ncontinue to support strong to near-gale easterly trade winds and \nrough to locally very rough seas over the central Caribbean for \nthe next several days. Gale- force winds off Colombia will \ndiminish below gale this morning. Strong winds are expected this \nmorning and tonight in the Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate \nto fresh easterly breezes are expected over the next few days in \nthe eastern Caribbean. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nScattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring between\nBermuda and the Greater Antilles, especially north of 22N and\nbetween 55W and 72W. A broad subtropical ridge dominates the SW\nNorth Atlantic, supporting moderate or weaker winds and seas of\n3-5 ft. However, a tighter pressure gradient north of Hispaniola\nand in the Windward Passage allow for fresh to locally strong\neasterly winds and moderate seas.\nThe interaction between a surface trough along 44W and an upper\nlevel low near 26N50W continue to support scattered showers and\nisolated thunderstorms east of the trough axis to 38W and north of\n22N. An extensive subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic\nsustains moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate\nseas south of 20N and west of 45W. East of 45W, moderate to fresh\nNE-E winds and moderate seas are prevalent. In the remainder of\nthe basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, a broad subtropical ridge will\npersist over the basin through Mon night, bringing mainly \ntranquil marine conditions. However, trades north of Hispaniola \ninto the Windward Passage will be fresh to locally strong into \nMon. On Tue, strong high pressure building southward through the \neastern United States will bring a cold front into the NW waters, \nincreasing NE winds to fresh to strong and causing seas to build \nto rough N of the Bahamas and W of 70W Tue through Wed night. \nConditions will improve late this week. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1209864590535917570", "issued": "2026-09-13T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1209864590535917570"}