{"msg": "810\nAXNT20 KNHC 130410\nTWDAT\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Sun Sep 13 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0330 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nCaribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the\nwestern Atlantic subtropical ridge centered along 71W and lower \npressures associated with the Colombian Low supports fresh to\nstrong winds across a large portion of the central Caribbean\ntonight. Winds have increased to gale-force off the coast of\nColombia S of 12.5N, where seas are 11-12 ft. Winds there will\ndiminish below gale-force by sunrise. This pattern is expected to\ncontinue for the next several days, and maintain these rough \nmarine conditions. A Gale Warning has been issued for the waters \noff of Colombia through 0900 UTC.\nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website: \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn Atlantic tropical wave has been added to the 0000 UTC surface\nanalysis along 38W/39W, south of 16N, moving westward near 20 kt.\nLatest satellite imagery, precipitable water, and scatterometer\ndata depict this wave. Scattered moderate isolated strong\nconvection is noted from 06N to 15N between 36W and 41.5W.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 45W, from 08N to 18N, moving \nwestward near 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen\nnear the wave axis between 42W and 46W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of \nGuenia-Bissau near 12N16.5W, and continues to 08N26W to 11N39W to\n10.5N44W. The ITCZ extends from 10N46W to the coast of NE \nVenezuela near 10.5N63W. Beyond weather described with tropical\nwaves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted \nfrom 05.5N to 10N between 14W and 33W, and from 09N and 12.5N\nbetween 46W and 55W.\n \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nConvection has diminished significantly across the northern Gulf\nearly tonight. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection\ncontinues within 75 nm of the W coast of Florida from Cedar Key to \nthe Florida Keys. and then across the Yucatan Channel. A strong\nconvective cluster is shifting off the western coast of the\nYucatan Channel and into the eastern Bay of Campeche. Weak high\npressure persists over the NE Gulf and is promoting generally\nlight to moderate anticyclonic flow across the basin, with seas of\n3 ft or less. Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail along the NW and\nW coasts of the Yucatan, while moderate SE winds prevail across \nthe coastal waters of NE Mexico and southern Texas, where seas are 3\nto 4 ft. \nFor the forecast, weak high pressure will maintain relatively \ntranquil conditions across Gulf waters into the start of next \nweek. The exception will be the Bay of Campeche, where a diurnal \ntrough will move westward offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each \nevening, bringing nightly pulses of fresh NE winds followed by \nshowers and thunderstorms. Starting later Tue, stronger high \npressure building southward from the eastern United States will \nlead to increasing NE to E winds over the basin, with speeds \nreaching fresh to strong over the NE basin Wed and Thu. Conditions\nwill improve late next week.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nAs previously mentioned, the pressure gradient between surface \nridging over the western Atlantic and the Colombian low supports\nfresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas over much of \nthe central Caribbean, S of 18N between 64W and 81W. Fresh to\nstrong winds and seas to 6 ft are found across the Gulf of\nHonduras S of 17N. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate \nseas are found in the eastern Caribbean E of 64W, while moderate \nor weaker winds and slight seas are prevalent elsewhere. An upper-\nlevel trough over the NW Caribbean is helping to sustain  \nconvection over Haiti, and the NW Caribbean between Jamaica and\ncentral Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over \nthe western Basin from the Yucatan Channel to the Gulf of\nHonduras, and across the coastal waters of Panama, Costa Rican and\nNicaragua. \nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between the western\nAtlantic subtropical ridge and lower pressures associated with \nthe Colombian Low has increased in the past 24 hours, as the most\nrecent tropical wave has exited the eastern Caribbean and moved\ninto the eastern Pacific. This pattern will continue to support \nstrong to near-gale easterly trade winds and rough to locally \nvery rough seas over the central Caribbean for the next several \ndays. Winds will pulse to gale force tonight offshore Colombia,\nthen diminish by sunrise. Strong winds are expected tonight and \nSun night in the Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh \neasterly breezes are expected over the next few days in the \neastern Caribbean. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA deep layered upper-level trough extends from the central\nAtlantic near 33N41W southwestward to N of Hispaniola to near \nJamaica, and is supporting several areas of significant convection\nacross the basin tonight. A band of showers and thunderstorms \ncovers the area from 23N to 26.5N between 61W and 72W. A low to \nmiddle level trough along about 42W from 20N to 28N is favorably \ninteracting with this upper trough to produce scattered showers \nand thunderstorms from 22N to 30N between 38W and 43W. At the \nsurface 1020 mb high pressure is centered near 31N71W and is \nproducing anticyclonic flow N of 25N and W of 65W. A lingering \nsurface trough from the Straits of Florida to near 30N77W is \nhelping to focus scattered thunderstorms that have shifted \nsoutheastward off of SE Florida and into the coastal waters \nbetween the NW Bahamas to across the Florida Keys in the past few \nhours. A pair of weak surface troughs N of 20N between 50W and 65W\naid in separating the western Atlantic ridge from stronger high \npressure across the NE and E Atlantic. 1026 mb high pressure \ncentered NE of the Azores extends a ridge southwestward to 30N40W.\nThe pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure \nacross NW Africa is producing fresh to locally strong N to NE \nwinds from offshore of Europe along 35N through the Canary Islands\nto 25N and E of 25W. Seas are 6 to 9 ft across this area. Of \nnote, a gale- force easterly gap wind event is occurring in the \nStraits of Gibraltar. Elsewhere across the tropical Atlantic \nmoderate to locally fresh trade winds prevail S of 22N between 30W\nand the Lesser Antilles. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across this zone. To \nthe north of these trades, winds are moderate or less with seas 4 \nft or less. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic subtropical \nridge will continue to dominate through Mon night, producing mainly\ntranquil marine conditions. However, trades north of Hispaniola \ninto the Windward Passage will pulse fresh to locally strong into\nMonday. On Tue, strong high pressure building SE through the \neastern United States will bring a cold front into the NW waters, \nincreasing NE winds to fresh to strong and causing seas to build \nto rough N of the Bahamas and W of 70W Tue night through Wed \nnight. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1209801950860279810", "issued": "2026-09-13T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1209801950860279810"}