{"msg": "466\nAXNT20 KNHC 122233\nTWDAT\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Sun Sep 13 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2230 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nCaribbean Gale Warning: Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh\nto strong winds over the central Caribbean, with near gale-force\nwinds offshore Colombia. Seas are near 13 ft with the strongest\nwinds based on recent altimeter data. Buoy 42058 located at \n14N76W is reporting seas of 10-11 ft. A tight pressure gradient \nbetween a subtropical ridge north of the islands and lower \npressures associated with the Colombian Low supports these wind \nspeeds. These marine conditions are forecast to persist for the \nnext several days. Winds will pulse to gale force tonight offshore\nColombia, where a Gale Warning has been issued. \nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website: \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 43W from 06N to 20N, moving \nwestward at around 20 kt. Scattered showers are seen near the \nwave axis.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of \nSenegal near 14N17W, and continues westward to 10N24W to 12N35W \nto 10N45W. The ITCZ extends from 10N45W to the coast of NE\nVenezuela near 10N61W. Scattered moderate convection is noted \nfrom 08N to 13N between 44W and 61W. \n \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nConvection continues to develop over the Gulf region, mainly \nnorth of 26N, and over most of the Florida Peninsula as abundant\ntropical moisture remains in place. A diffluent pattern aloft is\nalso helping to induce this convective activity. A surface \ntrough is just E of SE Florida while another trough is over the \ncentral Bay of Campeche. Under this weather pattern, gentle to \nmoderate winds with slight to moderate seas are noted.\nFor the forecast, weak high pressure will bring relatively tranquil\nconditions to Gulf waters into the start of next week. The exception\nwill be the Bay of Campeche, where a diurnal trough will move \nwestward offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each evening, bringing \nnightly pulses of fresh NE winds. Starting later Tue, stronger \nhigh pressure building southward from the eastern United States \nwill lead to increasing NE to E winds over the basin, with speeds\nreaching fresh to strong over the NE basin Wed and Thu. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nAs previously mentioned, the pressure gradient between surface \nridging over the western Atlantic and the Colombian low supports\nfresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds and rough seas \nover much of the central Caribbean, mainly S of 18N. Moderate to\nfresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the eastern \nCaribbean, while moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are \nprevalent elsewhere. An upper-level trough over the NW Caribbean \nis helping to induce convection over western Cuba and the NW \nCaribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over the\nremainder of the Greater Antilles due to local effects. \nFor the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a subtropical\nridge north of the islands and lower pressures associated with \nthe Colombian Low will continue to support strong to near-gale \neasterly trade winds and rough to locally very rough seas over \nthe central Caribbean for the next several days. Winds will pulse\nto gale force tonight offshore Colombia, where a Gale Warning \nhas been issued. Strong winds are expected tonight and Sun night \nin the Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly \nbreezes are expected over the next few days in the eastern \nCaribbean. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nAn upper-level low located just N of Hispaniola, combined with\nupper diffluent over Florida and the far western Atlantic supports\na band-like of showers and thunderstorms that roughly covers the\narea from 24N to 27N W of 55W. Farther E, another area of showers\nand thunderstorms is noted affecting the waters from 24N to 30N \nbetween 39W and 43W. This convective activity is related to a \nsurface trough, that runs from 30N40W to 22N41W. A frontal trough\nremains over the forecast area, and extends from 31N44W to 26N55W\nto just south of Bermuda. A weak 1017 mb low is analyzed along\nthe front and SE of Bermuda near 30N61W. The remainder of the \nforecast region is dominated by high pressure, with the main center\nof 1025 mb located well NE of the Azores. The pressure gradient \nbetween the high pressure and lower pressures over NW Africa is \npromoting moderate to fresh N to NE winds N of 20N and E of 30W, \nincluding the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh trade winds are \nobserved E of the Lesser Antilles to about 45W, and also just N \nof Hispaniola. Moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere. Seas \nare in general moderate across the Atlantic forecast waters based\non altimeter data and Sofar buoys.\nOf note: A gale-force gap wind event is occurring in the Straits\nof Gibraltar. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will continue\nto dominate through Mon night, bringing mainly tranquil marine \nconditions. However, trades north of Hispaniola into the Windward\nPassage will be fresh to locally strong into Monday. On Tue, \nstrong high pressure building SE through the eastern United \nStates will bring a cold front into the NW waters, increasing NE \nwinds to fresh to strong and causing seas to build to rough N of \nthe Bahamas and W of 70W Tue night through Wed night. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1209735675630649346", "issued": "2026-09-12T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1209735675630649346"}