{"msg": "729\nAXPZ20 KNHC 122131\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Sat Sep 12 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2100 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Norbert is centered near 17.6N 129.6W at 12/2100\nUTC, moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with\ngusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are 20 ft within 150 nm N semicircle \nof the center. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection \nis noted within 150 nm NW semicircle. Norbert is moving toward \nthe west- northwest. A turn toward the west is forecast on \nSunday, and Norbert should continue in this direction during the \nnext several days. Only modest strengthening is expected through \nthe weekend. By early next week, a gradual weakening trend is \nexpected to commence, and Norbert should degenerate into a post- \ntropical remnant low toward the end of next week.\nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nFourteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nGale Warning south of Clarion Island (Invest EP97): Showers and \nthunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located \nseveral hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of \nMexico have become a little less organized this morning. \nEnvironmental conditions appear conducive for development, \nhowever, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the\nnext couple of days while it moves generally west-northwestward \nto westward over the central and western portions of the eastern \nPacific basin. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone \nformation within the next 48 hours. A Gale Warning is in effect \nwith this system. Regardless of tropical cyclone development, \nwinds strong winds with rough seas are expected to the south and\nsouthwest of Clarion Island through Mon.\nRefer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website -\nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 91W north of 03N extending into Guatemala,\nmoving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong \nconvection is active from 04N to 12N between 83W and 98W.\nA tropical wave is along 114W from 07N to 20N, moving westward \nat 10 to 15 kt. A 1008 mb surface low (EP97) is along the wave \naxis near 17N114W. A well defined swirl of low clouds is evident\nin visible satellite imagery in association with this low.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 05N100W to 16N115W to \n11N110W, and from 12N130W to beyond 13N140W. In addition to the \nconvection associated with T.S. Norbert and Invest EP97, \nscattered moderate convection is found from 04N to 12N between \n83W and 98W, from 07N to 11N between 105W and 112W, and from 07N\nto 14N between 117W and 125W. Scattered moderate to isolated \nstrong is noted from 04N to 10N W of 130W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information \nabout Tropical Storm Norbert and Invest EP97. \nRecent scatterometer satellite pass indicates fresh to strong \nwinds within 90 nm on the E semicircle of Invest EP97, that is a\n1008 mb low pressure, located south of Clarion Island near \n17N114W. Moderate to locally rough seas accompany these winds. \nScatterometer data also show moderate to locally fresh NW winds \noff the coast of SW Mexico. Similar winds speeds are also noted \nover the northern Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds and \nmoderate seas dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja \nCalifornia. \nFor the forecast, away from the impacts of T.S. Norbert and \nInvest EP97, a ridge will build across the offshore waters of \nBaja California, bringing moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds\nSun into early next week. Expect fresh winds across the northern\nGulf of California early next week due to the pressure gradient \nbetween the ridge and lower pressure over the Colorado River \nvalley. Looking ahead, fresh to strong N to NE gap winds will \npulse again in the Tehuantepec region by the middle of next week,\nbuilding seas to 8 or 9 ft.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nHigh pressure north of the area is promoting fresh to strong \neasterly trade winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Papagayo \nregion, extending downstream to near 90W. Elsewhere, moderate or\nweaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. Convection continues\nto develop on either side of the monsoon trough. Gusty winds and\nhigher seas are likely occurring near thunderstorms. \nFor the forecast, a ridge north of the area will continue to\nsupport pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate to \nrough seas across the Papagayo region through early next week. \nMeanwhile, gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate seas \nare expected over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos \nthrough at least the middle of next week. Moderate or lighter \nwinds and moderate seas in long period SW swell are forecast \nelsewhere.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information \nabout Tropical Storm Norbert and Invest EP97.\nAway from the impacts of T.S. Norbert, moderate to locally fresh\nSE winds and rough seas are found south of 04N and west of the \nGalapagos Islands to about 135W. A 1020 mb high pressure located\nN of area near 34N133W dominates the waters north of 20N. Under \nthe influence of this system, and away from Norbert, mainly \nmoderate winds and moderate seas prevail, with the exception of \nlight to gentle winds north of 20N and east of 116W to Baja \nCalifornia Peninsula.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Norbert will move to 18.0N 131.1W \nSun morning, 18.5N 133.2W Sun afternoon, 18.8N 135.4W Mon morning,\n19.1N 138.0W Mon afternoon, 19.3N 140.7W Tue morning, and weaken\nto a tropical depression near 19.3N 143.4W Tue afternoon. Norbert\nwill become a remnant low well W of area to near 18.5N 149.0W \nWed afternoon. Elsewhere, a cross equatorial swell will persist \nover the next several days producing seas to 9 ft south of 04N. A\ntight pressure gradient will result in locally fresh N winds and\nrough seas in the NE waters late this weekend into early next \nweek. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1209723466345349122", "issued": "2026-09-12T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1209723466345349122"}