{"id": "1209716846908997634", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-12T21:00:00Z", "msg": "551\nWTPZ44 KNHC 122057\nTCDEP4\n \nTropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142026\n1100 AM HST Sat Sep 12 2026\n \nA 1712 UTC ASCAT-B pass revealed that Norbert's center is located \nnear the southern edge of a compact mass of deep convection, and the \nwind field is asymmetric, favoring the northern side. The \nscatterometer data showed peak wind vectors of 42 kt within the \nnorthwestern quadrant, and based on that data, the current \nintensity is lowered to 45 k.\n\nNorbert continues to move west-northwestward, or 285/10 kt, located \nto the south of the subtropical ridge extending westward from \nnorthern Mexico. The ridge is expected to keep Norbert on a \nwest-northwestward to westward heading for the remainder of the \nforecast period. However, there has been another northward shift in \nthe track model guidance, and the NHC official forecast has been \nmoved in that direction using a blend of the previous forecast with \nthe latest HCCA and GDMI aids, which lie along the northern \nboundary of the guidance envelope.\n\nThe additional northward shift in Norbert's expected track will \ntake it further into the zone of strong westerly shear that extends \nacross much of the central Pacific basin, including over Hawaii. \nLittle change in strength is expected during the next 24 hours \nwhile the shear still remains relatively low, but increasing shear \nand a marginal thermodynamic environment should cause additional \nweakening to begin on Sunday. In fact, the nearly all of the models \nrespond to the hostile environment by showing Norbert dissipating \ninto a trough of low pressure several hundred miles east-southeast \nof Hawaii potentially as early as Wednesday. For this update, the \nNHC forecast shows Norbert degenerating into a remnant low by \nWednesday and dissipating by Thursday before reaching the longitude \nof the Hawaiian Islands.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  12/2100Z 17.6N 129.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  13/0600Z 18.0N 131.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  13/1800Z 18.5N 133.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  14/0600Z 18.8N 135.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  14/1800Z 19.1N 138.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 60H  15/0600Z 19.3N 140.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  15/1800Z 19.3N 143.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  16/1800Z 18.5N 149.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}