{"msg": "081\nAXNT20 KNHC 121706\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Sat Sep 12 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1700 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 41W from 06N to 20N, moving \nwestward at around 20 kt. Scattered showers are seen near the wave\naxis.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of \nSenegal near 13N17W, and continues to 10N24W to 13N35W to 10N44W.\nThe ITCZ extends from 10N44W to the coast of Venezuela near \n10N61W. Numerous moderate convection is noted from 08N to 14N \nbetween 44W and 63W. \nThe eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends\nacross the far SW Caribbean. Scattered moderate and isolated\nstrong convection are seen along and near the coasts of Nicaragua,\nCosta Rica, and Panama.\n \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nAn upper level shortwave trough over the SE US and convergent \nsurface winds over the eastern Gulf are supporting widely \nscattered moderate convection across a large region N of 24N and E\nof 95W. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between higher pressure\ninland over Mexico and a surface trough in the Bay of Campeche\nsupports moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds and seas of 3-5\nft across the Bay of Campeche and the far west Gulf. Gentle to \nmoderate or weaker winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, high pressure centered over the NE Gulf will \ndominate into the start of next week. Winds will pulse to fresh \nspeeds each night off the W Yucatan peninsula due to a diurnal \ntrough moving toward the SW Gulf. By Tue night, a building ridge \nover the eastern United States and a frontal trough will combine \nto increase winds to fresh to locally strong speeds and build seas\nover the Gulf waters N of 23N into late next week.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nThe pressure gradient between surface ridging over the western\nN Atlantic and the Colombian low supports fresh to near gale-force \neasterly trade winds and rough seas over much of the central \nCaribbean S of 18N. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate \nseas are found in the eastern Caribbean, while moderate or weaker \nwinds and slight seas are prevalent elsewhere. An upper-level \ntrough over the NW Caribbean is producing scattered showers and \nisolated thunderstorms. All other convection is described in the \nmonsoon trough/ITCZ section above. Fair weather prevails across \nmost of the Caribbean E of 77W.\nFor the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a subtropical\nridge north of the islands and lower pressures associated with \nthe Colombian Low will continue to support strong to locally near-\ngale easterly trade winds and rough to locally very rough seas \nover the central Caribbean for the next several days. Gusts to \ngale force are likely tonight off Colombia. Winds will pulse to \nstrong speeds in the Gulf of Honduras this evening through Mon \nmorning. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly breezes are \nexpected over the next few days in the eastern Caribbean. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nAn upper-level trough in the SW N Atlantic and surface trough\nparalleling the SE US coast are producing scattered moderate\nconvection N of 23N and W of 72W. To the east, A frontal remnant\ntrough extends from 31N44W to 26N55W to just south of Bermuda. A\n1017 mb low is analyzed SE of Bermuda. Interactions between these\nfeatures and the upper-level trough are supporting more scattered\nmoderate convection from 24N to 30N between 56W and 67W, while\nscattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring along\nthe trough axis from 52W northeastward. Finally, a surface trough\nN of the tropical wave near 41W is also supporting isolated\nmoderate convection along the trough axis. \nOutside of convection, surface ridging dominates much of the \ntropical Atlantic. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate \nseas dominate much of the basin E of 34W, as well as S of 20N and \nW of 40W. Gentle to moderate or weaker trades and 3-5 ft seas \nprevail elsewhere. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, scattered thunderstorms between \nBermuda and the Bahamas in association with an upper-level trough \nshould diminish tonight. At the surface, the subtropical ridge \nwill continue to dominate for the next several days. Trades north \nof Hispaniola into the Windward Passage will be fresh to locally \nstrong into early next week. Looking ahead, a building ridge over \nthe eastern United States and a frontal trough will combine to \nincrease winds to fresh to locally strong speeds and build seas to\nrough north of the Bahamas and W of 70W starting Tue and \ncontinuing into Thu. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and \nslight to moderate seas will prevail. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1209671237047582722", "issued": "2026-09-12T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1209671237047582722"}