{"msg": "306\nAXPZ20 KNHC 121557\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Sat Sep 12 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1500 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Norbert is centered near 17.3N 128.3W at 12/1500\nUTC, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with\ngusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are 20 ft within 150 nm N semicircle \nof the center. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted \nwithin 150 nm NW semicircle. Norbert is moving toward the west-\nnorthwest. A turn toward the west is forecast on Sunday, and \nNorbert should continue in this direction during the next several\ndays. Only modest strengthening is expected through the weekend.  \nBy early next week, a gradual weakening trend is expected to \ncommence, and Norbert should degenerate into a post-tropical \nremnant low toward the end of next week.\nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nFourteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nGale Warning south of Clarion Island (Invest EP97): Earlier \nsatellite-derived winds indicate that the surface circulation \nassociated with an area of low pressure located several hundred \nmiles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico remains \npoorly defined. Environmental conditions still appear conducive \nfor development, however, and a tropical depression is expected \nto form during the next couple of days while it moves generally \nwest-northwestward to westward over the central and western \nportions of the eastern Pacific basin. This system has a high \nchance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. A\nGale Warning is in effect with this system. Regardless of \ntropical cyclone development, winds to minimal gale-force along \nwith rough seas are expected to the south and southwest of \nClarion Island through Mon.\nRefer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website -\nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 90W north of 03N through Guatemala, \nmoving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is \nactive from 03N to 12N between 80W and 95W.\nA tropical wave is along 114W from 07N to 20N, moving westward \nat 10 to 15 kt. A 1006 mb surface low (EP97) is along the wave \naxis near 15N114W. Numerous moderate convection is within 60 nm\nof the center.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 07N95W to 16N115W to \n13N110W, and from 13N130W to beyond 13N140W. In addition to the \nconvection associated with T.S. Norbert and Invest EP97, \nscattered moderate convection is found from 03N to 12N between \n80W and 95W, from 07N to 11N between 105W and 111W, and from 08N\nto 16N between 116W and 125W. Scattered moderate to isolated \nstrong is noted from 04N to 09N W of 130W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information \nabout Tropical Storm Norbert and Invest EP97. \nThe most recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to \nstrong winds near 1006 mb low pressure, Invest EP97, south of \nClarion Island near 15.5N114W. Moderate to rough seas accompany \nthese winds. The scatterometer pass also showed moderate to \nlocally fresh NW winds off the coast of Colima and Michoacan. \nFarther north, 1003 mb low pressure is analyzed over the Colorado\nRiver Valley between California and Arizona. This pattern is \nsupporting moderate to fresh SE winds across the northern Gulf of\nCalifornia, as noted in the scatterometer satellite pass. Gentle\nto moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are seen elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, elsewhere, a ridge will build across the \noffshore waters of Baja California, bringing moderate to locally \nfresh NW to N winds Sun into early next week. Expect fresh winds \nacross the northern Gulf of California early next week due to the\npressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over the \nColorado River valley. Looking ahead, fresh to strong N to NE gap\nwinds will pulse again in the Tehuantepec region by the middle \nof next week.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nHigh pressure north of the area is promoting fresh to strong \neasterly trade winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Papagayo \nregion, extending downstream to near 89W. Elsewhere, moderate or \nweaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. Scattered showers \nand thunderstorms are occurring off Panama and Colombia. Gusty \nwinds and higher seas are likely occurring with these storms.\nFor the forecast, a ridge north of the area will continue to\nsupport pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate to \nrough seas across the Papagayo region through early next week. \nMeanwhile, gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate seas \nare expected over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos \nthrough at least the middle of next week. Moderate or lighter \nwinds and moderate seas in long period SW swell are forecast \nelsewhere.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information \nabout Tropical Storm Norbert and Invest EP97.\nAway from the impacts of T.S. Norbert, moderate to locally fresh\nSE winds and rough seas are found south of 04N and west of the \nGalapagos Islands to about 130W. A 1018 mb high pressure located\n32N131W dominates the waters north of 20N. Under the influence \nof this system, and away from Norbert, mainly moderate winds and \nmoderate seas prevail, with the exception of light to gentle \nwinds north of 20N and east of 118W to Baja California Peninsula.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Norbert will move to 17.7N \n129.7W this evening, 18.1N 131.6W Sun morning, 18.4N 133.7W Sun \nevening, 18.6N 136.0W Mon morning, 18.7N 138.5W Mon evening, and \n18.6N 141.1W Tue morning. Norbert will weaken to a remnant low \nnear 17.7N 146.3W early Wed. Elsewhere, a cross equatorial \nswell will persist over the next several days producing seas to 9\nft south of 04N. A tight pressure gradient will result in locally\nfresh N winds and rough seas in the NE waters late this weekend \ninto early next week. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1209657725154623490", "issued": "2026-09-12T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1209657725154623490"}