{"id": "1209641438010671106", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-12T15:00:00Z", "msg": "528\nWTPZ44 KNHC 121434\nTCDEP4\n \nTropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142026\n500 AM HST Sat Sep 12 2026\n \nThis morning's conventional satellite presentation consists of an\namorphous blob of deep convection near the surface center that has\nbeen bursting intermittently during the past several hours.  A 1132\nUTC AMSR3 color composite microwave image indicated that the\nsurface center remains near the southern edge of the convective\nmass.  The objective and subjective intensity estimates are\nunchanged from 6 hours ago, and the initial intensity is set at 50\nkt.\n\nNorbert's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or \n285/9 kt, and this general motion should continue through the \nweekend.  Afterward, a subtropical ridge to the north of the \ncyclone should steer Norbert in a westward heading through most \nof next week.  There has been a shift toward the north of the \nmajority of the skilled models from the previous advisory, which \nhas in turn placed the forecast track in increasingly unfavorable \nenvironmental conditions.  Consequently, the official track \nforecast has been shifted to the right of the previous one and lies \nclose to the GDMI ensemble mean and HCCA consensus aid.\n \nAlthough Norbert has been moving over warm oceanic surface\ntemperatures, marginal moisture content in the low- to mid-levels\nand southerly vertical shear have been suppressing the tropical \ncyclone's opportunity to strengthen significantly.  In fact, only \nthe HFIP HCCA and the Google DeepMind WeatherNext 2 (GDMI) show \nsome strengthening during the short term.  Through the remaining \nforecast period, because of the significant northward adjustment of \nthe models, gradual weakening is expected beginning early next week, \nand Norbert should become a post-tropical remnant low early Thursday \n(day 4).  The NHC intensity forecast follows suit and has been \nadjusted downward from the previous forecast beyond the 24 hours. \n \nNorbert's 34-kt wind radii have been expanded in the north\nsemicircle based on a 0842 UTC OSCAT-3 scatterometer overpass.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  12/1500Z 17.3N 128.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  13/0000Z 17.7N 129.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  13/1200Z 18.1N 131.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  14/0000Z 18.4N 133.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  14/1200Z 18.6N 136.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 60H  15/0000Z 18.7N 138.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  15/1200Z 18.6N 141.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  16/1200Z 17.7N 146.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  17/1200Z 15.9N 151.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n \n"}