{"msg": "188\nAXNT20 KNHC 120930\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Sat Sep 12 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0925 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 38W, south of 25N, moving \nwestward at 15 to 20 kt. The portions of the wave N of 18N is \nshifting northwestward, forced by middle level southeasterly flow \nbehind it. Scattered moderate convection is from 21N to 25N near \nthis portion of the wave. Scattered moderate convection is also \nabout the southern portion of the wave, from 07N to 12N between \n34W and 44W. \nThe tropical wave previously analyzed around 86W has moved into\nthe eastern Pacific, please read the Tropical Weather Discussion\n(TWDEP) for more details. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of \nSenegal near 14N17W, and continues to 10N22W to 14N33W to 10N43W.\nThe ITCZ extends from 10N45W to the coast of Venezuela near \n10N61W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted\nfrom 08N to 12N between 46W and 62W.\n \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nHigh pressure over northern Florida and lower pressures over\nMexico support moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and\nmoderate seas west of 94W and north of 23N. Moderate easterly\nwinds and seas of 2-4 ft are occurring in the Bay of Campeche.\nELsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. A few\nshowers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the eastern\nGulf waters.\nFor the forecast, high pressure will prevail over the NE Gulf waters \nduring the weekend. Winds will pulse to fresh speeds each night \noff the W Yucatan peninsula due to a diurnal trough moving toward \nthe SW Gulf. By Tue night, a building ridge over the eastern \nUnited States and a frontal trough will combine to increase winds \nto fresh to locally strong speeds and build seas over the Gulf \nwaters N of 23N into late next week. Conditions will improve late\nnext week.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nWeak high pressure is centered N of the basin, between the \nBahamas and Bermuda. The pressure gradient between the associated \nridge and the Colombian low supports fresh to near gale-force \neasterly trade winds and rough seas over much of the central \nCaribbean S of 18N. A buoy near 14N76W is showing seas to 10 ft.\nModerate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found in\nthe eastern Caribbean, while moderate winds and seas are prevalent\nelsewhere.\nAn upper-level trough over the NW Caribbean is producing scattered\nshowers and isolated thunderstorms. Fair weather prevails across \nthe area E of 78W.\nFor the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a subtropical\nridge north of the islands and lower pressures associated with \nthe Colombian Low will continue to support strong to locally \nnear-gale easterly trade winds and rough to locally very rough \nseas over the central Caribbean for the next several days. Gusts \nto gale force may occur tonight off Colombia. Meanwhile, moderate \nto fresh easterly breezes are expected over the next few days in \nthe eastern Caribbean. Winds will pulse to strong speeds in the \nGulf of Honduras this evening through Mon morning. Elsewhere, \nmoderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nAn upper-level trough in the SW N Atlantic is producing scattered\nshowers and isolated thunderstorms over a good portion of the\nbasin, especially between Bermuda and the Bahamas. At the surface,\na weak high pressure dominates forcing moderate or weaker winds\nand slight to moderate seas west of 55W. \nA broad high pressure centered off Portugal supports moderate to\nlocally fresh easterly winds between the Lesser Antilles and 35W.\nModerate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas are noted east of\n35W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas\nprevail. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, scattered moderate to isolated\nstrong convection is noted between Bermuda and the Bahamas \nassociated with an upper- level trough. At the surface, the \nsubtropical ridge will dominate the SW N Atlantic waters over the \nnext several days. Trades north of Hispaniola into the Windward \nPassage will be fresh to locally strong through early next week. \nLooking ahead, a building ridge over the eastern United States and\na frontal trough will combine to increase winds to fresh to \nlocally strong speeds and build seas to rough north of the Bahamas\nand W of 70W starting Tue and continuing into Thu. Elsewhere, \nmoderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1209581593521553410", "issued": "2026-09-12T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1209581593521553410"}