{"msg": "925\nAXPZ20 KNHC 120917\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Sat Sep 12 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0900 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Norbert is centered near 17.1N 127.4W at 12/0900\nUTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with\ngusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are 24 ft within 150 nm NE quadrant of\nthe center. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from\nwithin 180 nm NE and 90 nm SW semicircles. Norbert will continue\nto move to the west- northwest over the next couple of days. \nEnvironmental conditions remain favorable for some strengthening \nover the weekend, and Norbert is forecast to approach hurricane \nintensity by 24 to 36 hours. Thereafter, a gradual weakening \ntrend is forecast through the remainder of the period.\nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nFourteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nGale Warning south of Clarion Island (Invest EP97): Showers and \nthunderstorms continue to become better organized in association \nwith a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles \nsouthwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Gradual \ndevelopment of this system is likely, and a tropical depression \nis expected to form during the next day or two while it moves \ngenerally west-northwestward to westward over the central and \nwestern portions of the eastern Pacific basin. This system has a \nhigh chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 \nhours. Regardless of tropical cyclone development, winds to\nminimal gale-force along with rough seas are expected to the south\nand southwest of Clarion Island through Mon.\nRefer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website -\nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 89W north of 08N, moving west at 10 to\n15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from 10N to 13N \nbetween 88W and 91W. \nA tropical wave is along 114W from 07N to 20N, moving westward \nat 10 to 15 kt. A 1006 mb surface low (EP97) is along the wave \naxis near 14N114W. Scattered moderate convection is present from \n12N to 15N between 110W and 117W. \n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 07N95W to 16N115W to \n15N120W, and from 13N125W to 09N135W to 14N140W. In addition to \nthe convection associated with T.S. Norbert and Invest EP97, \nscattered moderate convection is found from 06N to 11N between \n90W and 100W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information \nabout Tropical Storm Norbert and Invest EP97. \nA recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong\nwinds near 1006 mb low pressure, Invest EP97, south of Clarion \nIsland near 15N114W. Moderate to rough seas accompany these \nwinds. The scatterometer pass also showed moderate to locally \nfresh NW winds off the coast of Colima and Michoacan. Farther \nnorth, 1003 mb low pressure is analyzed over the Colorado River \nValley between California and Arizona. This pattern is supporting\nmoderate to fresh SE winds across the northern Gulf of \nCalifornia, as noted in the scatterometer satellite pass. Gentle \nto moderate winds and 3-5 ft seas are noted elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, showers and thunderstorms associated with the \nbroad area of low pressure, Invest EP97, located south of \nClarion Island remain disorganized. Environmental conditions are \nconducive for development, and there is a high chance a tropical \ndepression may form over the weekend as the center of the low \npressure moves west-northwest to about 210 nm to the southwest of\nClarion by late Sun. Regardless of tropical cyclone development,\nstrong to near-gale force SE winds along with rough seas are \nexpected near and to the southwest of Clarion Island through Mon.\nElsewhere, a ridge will build across the offshore waters of Baja\nCalifornia, bringing moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds Sun\ninto early next week. Expect fresh winds across the northern \nGulf of California early next week due to the pressure gradient \nbetween the ridge and lower pressure over the Colorado River \nvalley. Looking ahead, fresh to strong N to NE gap winds will \npulse again in the Tehuantepec region by the middle of next week.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nHigh pressure north of the area is promoting fresh to strong \neasterly trade winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Papagayo \nregion, extending downstream to near 89W. Elsewhere, moderate or \nweaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. Scattered showers \nand thunderstorms are occurring off Panama and Colombia. Gusty \nwinds and higher seas are likely occurring with these storms.\nFor the forecast, a ridge north of the area will continue to\nsupport pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate to \nrough seas across the Papagayo region through early next week. \nMeanwhile, gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate seas \nare expected over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos \nthrough at least the middle of next week. Moderate or lighter \nwinds and moderate seas in long period SW swell are forecast \nelsewhere.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information \nabout Tropical Storm Norbert and Invest EP97.\nAway from the impacts of T.S. Norbert, moderate to locally fresh\nSE winds and rough seas are found south of 04N and west of the \nGalapagos Islands to about 130W. 1020 mb high pressure located \n32N132W dominates waters north of 20N. Under the influence of \nthis system, and away from Norbert, mainly moderate winds and \nmoderate seas prevail, with the exception of light to gentle \nwinds north of 20N and east of 115W to Baja California \nPeninsula.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Norbert is near 17.1N 127.4W at 2 AM PDT, and is\nmoving west-northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt\nwith gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 999 mb.\nNorbert will move to 17.4N 128.8W this afternoon, 17.8N 130.6W\nSun morning, 18.1N 132.6W Sun afternoon, 18.4N 134.7W Mon\nmorning, 18.4N 137.0W Mon afternoon, and 18.3N 139.4W Tue\nmorning. Norbert will change little in intensity as it moves to\nthe west of 140W early Wed. Elsewhere, a cross equatorial swell \nwill persist over the next several days producing seas to 9 ft \nsouth of 04N. A tight pressure gradient will result in locally \nfresh N winds and rough seas in the NE waters late this weekend \ninto early next week. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1209579130336903170", "issued": "2026-09-12T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1209579130336903170"}