{"msg": "352\nAXNT20 KNHC 120450\nTWDAT\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Sat Sep 12 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0430 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 37W-38W, south of 24N, moving\nwestward at 15 to 20 kt. The portions of the wave N of 18N is\nshifting northwestward, forced by middle level southeasterly flow\nbehind it. Scattered moderate convection is from 21N to 25N near\nthis portion of the wave. Scattered moderate convection is also \nabout the southern portion of the wave, from 07.5N to 12N between \n34W and 44W. \nA tropical wave previously analyzed over the central Caribbean \nalong 76W is no longer clearly evident, and has been dropped from\nthe 00Z analysis. However, a wind surge is suggested across that \narea, and is approaching the next tropical wave across the \nwestern Caribbean. \nA second tropical wave is over the NW Caribbean near 85W-86W, \nsouth of 20N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered to \nlocally numerous squalls and thunderstorms are across the NW basin\nand Gulf of Honduras, from 15.5N to 20.5N between 78W and 86w.\nScattered moderate convection is noted about the eastern Pacific \nmonsoon trough and Central America and into the eastern Pacific \nwaters, affecting parts of Honduras, Nicaragua. Costa Rica and\nPanama. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of \nSenegal near 14N17W, and continues to 09N21W to 13N32W to 11N39W.\nThe ITCZ extends from 10.5N43W to the coast of Venezuela near \n08.5N61W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical \nwave, numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 09N to\n12N between 47W and 61W.\n \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nEvening convection across the basin has diminished significantly \nin recent hours, with scattered moderate convection continuing \nacross the Florida Big Bend N of 27N. A very weak pressure pattern\nprevails across the Gulf basin, with 1017 mb high pressure over \nnorth-central Florida yielding a generally light to gentle \nanticyclonic wind flow. Moderate E to NE winds prevail across NW \nand W coastal waters of the Yucatan Peninsula, ahead of the \ntypical surface trough over the peninsula, while moderate to \nlocally fresh winds are near the coast of northeastern Mexico and \nsouth Texas. Seas are 3 ft or less basin-wide, except 3-5 ft \nwithin 120 nm of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and south \nTexas. \nFor the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the NE Gulf \nwaters during the next several days. Winds will pulse to fresh \nspeeds each night off the W Yucatan peninsula due to a diurnal \ntrough moving toward the SW Gulf. By the middle of next week, a \nbuilding ridge over the eastern United States and a frontal trough\nwill combine to increase winds to fresh speeds over the Gulf \nwaters N of 23N.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nWeak high pressure is centered N of the basin, between the Bahamas\nand Bermuda. The pressure gradient between the associated ridge\nand the Colombian low supports fresh to strong trade winds and \nrough seas over much of the central Caribbean S of 18N, as noted \nin recent satellite scatterometer data. Seas are 8 to 11 ft S of\n17N over the south- central Caribbean. Elsewhere moderate to \nlocally fresh trade winds and moderate seas are evident, with the \nexception of light to gentle winds over the NW Caribbean. An \nupper-level trough over the NW Caribbean is enhancing convective \nactivity associated with the tropical wave across the western\nbasin. Fair weather prevails across the area E of 78W.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between the subtropical \nridge north of the area and lower pressures associated with the \nColombian Low will continue to force strong to locally near-gale \neasterly trade winds and rough to locally very rough seas over the\ncentral Caribbean for the next several days. Meanwhile, moderate \nto fresh easterly breezes are expected over the next few days in \nthe eastern Caribbean. Winds will pulse to strong speeds in the \nGulf of Honduras late Sat through Mon morning. Elsewhere, moderate\nor weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will be prevalent.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA frontal trough extends from 31N44.5W to 25N53W to 31N64W. Upper\nlevel low pressure located E of the southeast Bahamas is\nsupportingscattered showers and thunderstorms S of this trough, \nfrom 24.5N to 28.5N between 55W and 73W. The remainder of the \nforecast waters are dominated by high pressure, with a 1026 mb \nhigh center of 1023 mb located offshore of NW Spain, and 1018 mb \nhigh near 28N69W. The pressure gradient between the eastern \nAtlantic high pressure and lower pressures over NW Africa is \npromoting moderate to fresh N to NE winds N of 16N and E of 22W, \nincluding the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh trade winds are \nobserved E of the Lesser Antilles to about 50W, where seas are 5 \nto 7 ft, and also along the N coast of Hispaniola. Moderate or \nweaker winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are, in general, moderate \nacross the Atlantic forecast waters.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will dominate\nthe SW N Atlantic waters over the next several days. Trades north\nof Hispaniola into the Windward Passage will be fresh to locally \nstrong through early next week. Looking ahead, a building ridge \nover the eastern United States and a frontal trough will combine \nto increase winds to fresh speeds and build seas to locally rough \nnorth of the Bahamas and W of 70W starting early next week and \ncontinuing through Wed night. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds \nand slight to moderate seas will prevail.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1209526653602037762", "issued": "2026-09-12T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1209526653602037762"}