{"msg": "073\nAXPZ20 KNHC 120353\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Sat Sep 12 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0300 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Norbert is centered near 17.2N 126.6W at 12/0300\nUTC, moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with\ngusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are 24 ft within 150 nm NE quadrant of\nthe center. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from\nwithin 180 nm NE and 90 nm SW semicircles. Norbert will continue\nto move to the west- northwest over the next couple of days. \nSome strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and \nNorbert could become a hurricane by late Sat.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nFourteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nGale Warning south of Clarion Island (EP97): Showers and \nthunderstorms continue to become better organized in association \nwith a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles \nsouthwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Gradual \ndevelopment of this system is likely, and a tropical depression \nis expected to form during the next day or two while it moves \ngenerally west-northwestward to westward over the central and \nwestern portions of the eastern Pacific basin. This system has a \nhigh chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 \nhours. Regardless of tropical cyclone development, winds to\nminimal gale-force along with rough seas are expected about 120\nnm south and southwest of Clarion Island by late Sun.\nRefer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website -\nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 86W north of 08N, moving west at 10 to\n15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from 05N to 08N\nbetween 83W and 87W. \nA tropical wave is along 113W/114W from 07N to 20N, moving \nwestward at 10 to 15 kt. A 1009 mb surface low (EP97) is along \nthe wave axis near 14N114W. Scattered moderate convection is \npresent from 11N to 14N between 111W and 117W. \n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N85W to 10N110W to\n16N118W, and from 12N125W to 15N140W. In addition to the \nconvection associated with T.S. Norbert and Invest EP97, \nscattered moderate convection is found from 06N to 11N between\n90W and 100W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information \nabout Tropical Storm Norbert and Invest EP97. \nFresh to strong winds and building seas are likely within 120 nm\nto the northeast of the 1008 mb low pressure area near 14N114W,\nreaching the outer offshore waters south of the Revillagigedo\nIslands. Farther north, 1000 mb low pressure is analyzed over the\nColorado River Valley between California and Arizona. This\npattern is supporting moderate to possibly locally fresh SE winds\nacross the northern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds\nand 3-5 ft seas are noted elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, a ridge will build across the offshore waters \nof Baja California, bringing moderate to locally fresh NW to N \nwinds Sun into early next week. Expect fresh winds across the \nnorthern Gulf of California early next week likely due to the \npressure gradient between the ridge and the meandering trough \nthat is in place in that area. Fresh to strong N to NE gap winds \nwill pulse again in the Tehuantepec region early next week. \nMeanwhile, showers and thunderstorms are becoming better \norganized in association with a broad area of low pressure (EP97)\nlocated several miles southwest of the southwestern coast of \nMexico. Gradual development of this system is likely, and a \ntropical depression is expected to form late this weekend or \nearly next week while it moves generally west- northwestward to \nwestward over the central and western portions of the East \nPacific. Regardless of tropical development, interests south of the\nClarion Island may see fresh to strong SE winds and rough seas by\nlate Sun as the low pressure moves W-NW to the south of the\nisland.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nHigh pressure north of the area is promoting fresh to strong \neasterly trade winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Papagayo \nregion, extending downstream to near 89W. Elsewhere, moderate or \nweaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. Scattered showers \nand thunderstorms are occurring off Panama and Colombia. Gusty \nwinds and higher seas are likely occurring with these storms.\nFor the forecast, a ridge north of the area will continue to\nsupport pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate to \nrough seas across the Papagayo region through early next week. \nMeanwhile, gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate seas \nare expected over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos \nthrough at least the middle of next week. Moderate or lighter \nwinds and moderate seas in long period SW swell are forecast \nelsewhere.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information \nabout Tropical Storm Norbert and Invest EP97.\nAway from the impacts of T.S. Norbert, moderate to locally fresh\nSE winds and rough seas are found south of 04N and west of the \nGalapagos Islands to about 130W. 1020 mb high pressure located \n32N132W dominates waters north of 20N. Under the influence of \nthis system, and away from Norbert, mainly moderate winds and \nmoderate seas prevail, with the exception of light to gentle \nwinds north of 20N and east of 115W to Baja California \nPeninsula.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Norbert is near 17.2N 126.6W at 8 PM PDT, and is\nmoving west-northwest at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55\nkt with gusts to 65 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 996\nmb. Norbert will move to 17.4N 127.9W Sat morning, strengthen to\na hurricane near 17.8N 129.8W Sat evening, 18.2N 131.5W Sun\nmorning, 18.5N 133.3W Sun evening, weaken to a tropical storm\nnear 18.7N 135.5W Mon morning, and 18.6N 137.3W Mon evening.\nNorbert will change little in intensity as it moves to the west\nof 140W by late Tue. Elsewhere, a cross equatorial swell will \npersist over the next several days producing seas to 9 ft south \nof 04N. A tight pressure gradient will result in locally fresh N \nwinds and rough seas in the NE waters late this weekend into \nearly next week. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1209515419560640514", "issued": "2026-09-12T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1209515419560640514"}