{"msg": "970\nAXNT20 KNHC 112302\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Sat Sep 12 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2300 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 36W, south of 21N, moving \nwestward at around 20 kt. Scattered showers are near the wave\naxis. \nA tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis along \n76W, south of 20N and extends southward into northern Colombia, \nmoving westward at 15 to 20 kt. The wave is enhancing convection\nover eastern Cuba and Jamaica. \nA second tropical wave is over the NW Caribbean near 83W, south \nof 20N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered to numerous\nshowers and thunderstorms are along the wave axis affecting \nparts of Honduras and Nicaragua as well as Costa Rica. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of \nMauritania near 18N16W, and continues southwestward to 10N42W. \nThe ITCZ extends from 10N42W to the coast of Guyana near 07N60W. \nAside from convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered\nmoderate convection is noted N of the ITCZ to about 11N and W of\n50W. \n \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nConvection continues to flare-up over the Gulf region, mainly \nnorth of 25N, and over the Florida Peninsula as abundant tropical\nmoisture remains in place. A diffluent pattern aloft is also \nhelping to induce this convective activity. A surface trough is \nanalyzed over south Florida and runs from 28N78W to 24N83W. \nAnother surface trough is over the central Bay of Campeche. Under\nthis weather pattern, gentle to locally moderate winds with slight\nto moderate seas are noted. \nFor the forecast, NE to E winds will pulse to fresh each night off the\nW Yucatan peninsula due to a diurnal trough moving toward the SW\nGulf. Elsewhere, winds will be moderate or weaker through early\nnext week due to the influence of weak high pressure centered \nover the N Gulf. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nHigh pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian low continues\nto support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas over much of\nthe central Caribbean, as noted on scatterometer data. Seas are 8\nto 11 ft per altimeter data over the south-central Caribbean.\nElsewhere moderate to locally fresh trade winds and moderate seas\nare evident, with the exception of light to gentle winds over \nthe NW Caribbean. Numerous showers, with embedded thunderstorms, \nare occurring over Cuba and Jamaica. An upper-level low spinning \nover the NW Caribbean is enhancing this convective activity. \nScattered showers and thunderstorms are also noted over Hispaniola.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient from ridging north of the\narea to the Colombian Low will continue to force strong to locally\nnear-gale trades over the central Caribbean for the next several\ndays. From late Sat through Mon night, trades over the Gulf of \nHonduras will increase to fresh to locally strong. Elsewhere, \nwinds will be moderate or weaker. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA frontal trough extends from 31N44W to 25N53W to 31N65W. Scattered\nshowers and thunderstorms are observed in association with this \ntrough, mainly N of 25N between 55W and 70W. The remainder of \nthe forecast waters are dominated by high pressure, with the main\ncenter of 1023 mb located near the Azores. The pressure gradient\nbetween the high pressure and lower pressures over NW Africa is \npromoting moderate to fresh N to NE winds N of 20N and E of 20W,\nincluding the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh trade winds are \nobserved E of the Lesser Antilles to about 40W, and also just N \nof Hispaniola. Moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere. Seas \nare in general moderate across the Atlantic forecast waters.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, trades north of Hispaniola into \nthe Windward Passage will be fresh to locally strong through \nearly next week. Elsewhere, the Bermuda-Azores High situated \nalong 30N should support moderate or weaker winds across the \nremaining forecast waters for the next several days. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1209458201284673538", "issued": "2026-09-11T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1209458201284673538"}