{"msg": "152\nAXPZ20 KNHC 112118\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Fri Sep 11 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2100 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Norbert is centered near 16.8N 125.7W at 11/2100\nUTC, moving west at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65\nkt. Peak seas are 20 ft within 150 nm NE quadrant of the center. \nNumerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 16N to 19N \nbetween 123W and 127W. Norbert is moving toward the west, and is \nexpected to turn toward the west-northwest over the next couple \nof days. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours,\nand Norbert could become a hurricane this weekend.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nFourteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nCentral and Western East Pacific (EP97): Showers and thunderstorms\nare becoming better organized in association with a broad area \nof low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the \nsouthwestern coast of Mexico. Gradual development of this system \nis likely, and a tropical depression is expected to form late \nthis weekend or early next week while it moves generally west-\nnorthwestward to westward over the central and western portions \nof the East Pacific. This system has a medium chance of tropical\ncyclone formation within the next 48 hours, and a high chance \nthrough 7 days.\nRefer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website -\nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave has its axis along 113W, south of 20N, moving \nwestward at 10 to 15 kt. A 1009 mb surface low (EP97) is along \nthe wave axis near 13N113W. Scattered moderate to isolated \nconvection is present from 11N to 16N between 107W and 115W. \n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N100W to 11N110W, \nthen continues SW of Norbert from 11N126W to 12N140W. In addition\nto the convection associated with T.S. Norbert and Invest EP97, \nscattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found from \n04N to 08N E of 92W to the coast of Colombia, from 10N to 16N\nbetween 115W and 123W, and from 00N to 11N W of 125W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information \nabout Tropical Storm Norbert and Invest EP97. \nRecent scatterometer satellite pass provide observation of moderate\nto fresh northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind\nto about 14N. Seas in these waters are 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, high\npressure of 1022 mb located 31N133W extends a ridge southeastward\nacross the offshore waters of Baja California producing light to\ngentle winds. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are over \nthe northern Gulf of California. Moderate easterly winds and \nmoderate seas are occurring west of the Revillagigedo Islands as \nTropical Storm Norbert continues to pull away. Elsewhere in the \nMexican offshore waters, moderate or weaker winds and slight to \nmoderate seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Norbert will move to 16.9N \n127.2W Sat morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.3N 129.1W \nSat afternoon, 17.7N 131.0W Sun morning, 18.1N 132.9W Sun \nafternoon, 18.3N 134.8W Mon morning, and weaken to a tropical \nstorm near 18.4N 136.8W Mon afternoon. Norbert will change little\nin intensity as it moves to near 18.2N 141.2W Tue afternoon.\nAs T.S. Norbert continues to move westward, a stronger ridge \nwill build across the offshore waters of Baja California, \nbringing moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds Sun into early \nnext week. Winds will also increase to fresh speeds across the \nnorthern Gulf of California early next week, likely due to the \npressure gradient between the ridge and the meandering trough \nthat is in place in that area. Otherwise, fresh to strong N to NE\ngap winds will pulse again in the Tehuantepec region early next \nweek.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nHigh pressure north of the area is promoting fresh to strong \neasterly trade winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Papagayo \nregion, extending downstream to near 89W. Elsewhere, moderate or \nweaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. Scattered showers \nand thunderstorms are occurring off Panama and Colombia. Gusty \nwinds and higher seas are likely occurring with these storms.\nFor the forecast, a ridge north of the area will continue to\nsupport pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate to \nrough seas across the Papagayo region through early next week. \nMeanwhile, gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate seas \nare expected over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos \nthrough at least the middle of next week. Moderate or lighter \nwinds and moderate seas in long period SW swell are forecast \nelsewhere.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information \nabout Tropical Storm Norbert and Invest EP97.\nAway from the impacts of T.S. Norbert, moderate to locally fresh\nSE winds and rough seas are found south of 04N and west of the \nGalapagos Islands to about 130W. High pressure of 1022 mb located\njust north of area dominates the N waters, mainly N of 20N and W\nof 110W. Under the influence of this system, and away from\nNorbert, mainly moderate winds and moderate seas prevail, with \nthe exception of light to gentle winds N of 21N and E of 118W to \nBaja California Peninsula. \nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Norbert will move to 16.9N 127.2W \nSat morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.3N 129.1W Sat \nafternoon, 17.7N 131.0W Sun morning, 18.1N 132.9W Sun afternoon, \n18.3N 134.8W Mon morning, and weaken to a tropical storm near \n18.4N 136.8W Mon afternoon. Norbert will change little in intensity\nas it moves to near 18.2N 141.2W Tue afternoon. Elsewhere, a cross\nequatorial swell will persist over the next several days producing\nseas to 9 ft south of 04N. A tight pressure gradient will result\nin locally fresh N winds and rough seas in the NE waters late this\nweekend into early next week. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1209437857055309826", "issued": "2026-09-11T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1209437857055309826"}