{"msg": "702\nAXPZ20 KNHC 110313\nTWDEP\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Fri Sep 11 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0305 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Norbert is centered near 16.4N 121.9W at 11/0300\nUTC, moving west at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55\nkt. Peak seas are 15 ft within 90 nm NE quadrant of the center. \nNumerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from\n15N to 20N and between 116W and 122W. Scattered moderate to \nisolated strong convection is present from 12N to 15N and \nbetween 114W and 119W. A general W motion is expected to continue\nthrough Friday, with a turn to the west-northwest likely on \nSaturday. Some strengthening is forecast, and Norbert could \nbecome a hurricane this weekend. \nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nFourteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 98W, north of 02N through SE Mexico. \nThe wave is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to \nisolated strong conveciton is seen from 08N to 11N between 93W \nand 100W.\n \nA tropical wave has its axis along 112W, south of 20N, moving\nwestward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong \nconvection is present from 04N to 15N between 106W and 114W. \n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N100W to 13N117W, \nthen continues SW of T.S. Norbert from 11N122W to 11N140W.\nScattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found north\nof 02N and east of 90W. Similar convection is occurring south of\n15N and west of 125W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information \nabout Tropical Storm Norbert located well SW of Baja California.\nA tight pressure gradient in the Gulf of Tehuantepec between \nhigh pressure north of the area and lower pressures in the deep\ntropics supports fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate\nseas. Elsewhere, a strong subtropical ridge centered well\nnorthwest of the offshore waters extends southeastward to the\nRevillagigedo Islands. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds\nand moderate seas are occurring west of the Revillagigedo Islands\nas Tropical Storm Norbert continues to pull away. Moderate\nnortherly winds and seas of 4-5 ft are found west of Guadalupe\nIsland. Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters, moderate or\nweaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.\nScattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the\ncentral and southern Gulf of California and in the nearshore\nwaters of Baja California. Gusty winds and higher seas are likely\noccurring with these storms.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Norbert is near 16.4N 121.9W at\n8 PM PDT, and is moving west at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds \nare 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure \nis 1000 mb. Norbert will continue to move away from the area over\nthe next few days. As Norbert continues to move westward, a \nstronger ridge will build across the offshore waters of Baja \nCalifornia, bringing moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds by \nSun into early next week. Winds will also increase across the \nnorthern Gulf of California Fri and Fri night, then again Sun \nthrough Mon night due to the pressure gradient between the ridge\nand the meandering trough that is in place in that area. \nOtherwise, fresh to strong N to NE gap winds will continue to \npulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Fri and then \nagain early next week.\nLooking ahead, showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad\narea of low pressure are located several hundred miles southwest\nof the southwestern coast of Mexico. Gradual development of this\nsystem is anticipated, and a tropical depression is likely to \nform by early next week while it moves generally west-\nnorthwestward to westward over the central and western portions \nof the East Pacific. This system has a high chance of tropical \ncyclone formation through 7 days.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nA tight pressure gradient across the Gulf of Papagayo region\nsupports fresh to strong easterly trade winds and locally rough\nseas. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are\nprevalent. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are\noccurring off Central America and Colombia. Gusty winds and\nhigher seas are likely occurring with these storms.\nFor the forecast, a ridge north of the area will continue to\nsupport pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate to \nrough seas across the Papagayo region, mainly at night, through \nMon night. Seas are forecast to build to 8 or 9 ft with the \nstrongest winds. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate southerly winds \nand moderate seas are expected over the waters between Ecuador \nand the Galapagos through early next week. Moderate or lighter \nwinds and moderate seas in long period SW swell are forecast \nelsewhere.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information \nabout Tropical Storm Norbert located well SW of Baja California. \nAway from the impacts of Norbert, moderate to locally fresh SE\nwinds and rough seas are found south of 04N and west of the\nGalapagos Islands to 125W. The strong subtropical ridge located\nwell north of the area dominates the remainder of the tropical\nEastern Pacific supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate\nseas.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Norbert is near 16.4N 121.9W at\n8 PM PDT, and is moving west at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds \nare 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure \nis 1000 mb. Norbert will move to 16.5N 123.7W Fri morning, 16.6N \n126.0W Fri evening, 16.9N 128.0W Sat morning, strengthen to a \nhurricane near 17.4N 129.9W Sat evening, 17.9N 131.7W Sun \nmorning, and 18.1N 133.6W Sun evening. Norbert will change little\nin intensity as it moves to the 18.3N 137.7W late Mon.\nElsewhere, a cross equatorial swell will persist over the next\nseveral days producing seas to 9 ft south of 04N. A tight\npressure gradient will result in locally fresh N winds and rough\nseas in the NE waters late this weekend into early next week.\nMeanwhile, showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad \narea of low pressure are located several hundred miles southwest \nof the southwestern coast of Mexico. Gradual development of this \nsystem is anticipated, and a tropical depression is likely to \nform by early next week while it moves generally west- \nnorthwestward to westward over the central and western portions \nof the East Pacific. This system has a high chance of tropical \ncyclone formation through 7 days.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1209224535165435906", "issued": "2026-09-11T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1209224535165435906"}