{"id": "1209217666017427458", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-11T03:00:00Z", "msg": "753\nWTPZ44 KNHC 110239\nTCDEP4\n \nTropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142026\n500 PM HST Thu Sep 10 2026\n\nNorbert continues to show a shear pattern on satellite imagery, \nwith the center located on the western edge of a strong and growing \narea of convection.  Objective satellite estimates are higher than \nthe last advisory, so the initial intensity is nudged upward to 45 \nkt.  Only slow strengthening is anticipated for the next few \ndays while Norbert experiences light-to-moderate westerly shear \nover warm waters, though close to some dry mid-level air.  Thus, \nNorbert will likely have some challenges developing an inner core, \nprobably preventing any rapid changes in the near-term.  Model \nguidance is higher than the last cycle overall, and the new \nintensity forecast is raised slightly from the previous one.  The \nlong-range intensity is a challenge given the large latitudinal \nspread in the track guidance as well as the possibility of \nincreasing shear.  \n\nThe tropical storm's motion remains westward at 12 kt.  A mid- \nlevel ridge over the eastern Pacific is forecast to build westward \nin tandem with Norbert during the next few days, keeping the \ncyclone moving westward to west-northwestward.  A south-of-west \ntrack is possible by next week, depending on the future orientation \nof the ridge and the position of Norbert.  The ECMWF has been \nshowing this west-southwest motion for a few runs now, and with the \nGoogle DeepMind now in closer agreement, the official forecast is \nshifted southward at long range.  Otherwise few changes were made \nto the previous forecast.\n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  11/0300Z 16.4N 121.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  11/1200Z 16.5N 123.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  12/0000Z 16.6N 126.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  12/1200Z 16.9N 128.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  13/0000Z 17.4N 129.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 60H  13/1200Z 17.9N 131.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  14/0000Z 18.1N 133.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  15/0000Z 18.3N 137.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  16/0000Z 17.5N 142.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n \n"}