{"msg": "099\nAXNT20 KNHC 102248\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Fri Sep 11 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2245 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nClusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are moving \nwestward over Guinea, Guinea Bissau and Sierra Leone reaching \nthe Atlantic waters. Based on model guidance, a new tropical wave\nfollows this convective activity. \nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 30W, south of 20N, moving \nwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted \nahead of the wave axis from 08N to 12N between 30W and 40W.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 67W, south of 20N and extends\ninto Venezuela, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave appears to\nenhance convection over western Venezuela. \nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 76, south of 19N, moving \nwestward at 15 to 20 kt. Convection is limited near the wave \naxis.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of\nMauritania near 20N16W, and continues southwestward to 14N30W to \n09N42W. The ITCZ extends from 09N42W to the coast of Guyana near \n07.5N59W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical\nwave, scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N \nbetween 40W and 56W.  \n \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA 1016 mb low pressure is located over the north-central Gulf\nnear the Mouth of the Mississippi River. A surface trough extends\nfrom the low center to near Galveston, TX. Scattered showers and\nthunderstorms are noted over most of the Gulf, mainly N of 22N. \nNumerous showers and thunderstorms are once again over most the \nFlorida Peninsula. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce\nthis convective activity. Showers and thunderstorms are also \nnoted over the Yucatan Peninsula and northern Guatemala. Otherwise,\na weak pressure gradient is over the Gulf waters supporting \ngentle to locally moderate winds. Higher winds of 25 to 30 kt are\nobserved per scatterometer data over the central Bay of Campeche,\nlikely associated with the Yucatan trough. These winds are \ngenerating mainly slight seas over the basin, with the exception \nof slight to moderate seas over the central Bay of Campeche.\nFor the forecast, weak high pressure will persist through early next \nweek, supporting mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas. \nStarting this weekend, winds will pulse to fresh with moderate \nseas off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to \na diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each \nnight. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nHigh pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian low continues\nto support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas over much of\nthe central Caribbean, particularly S of 16N, and in the Gulf of\nVenezuela. Three altimeter passes indicate seas of 8 to 11 ft within\nthese winds, mainly offshore Colombia. Fresh to strong winds are\nalso evident across the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh winds,\nand moderate seas cover the remainder of the Caribbean waters. \nConvection has flared-up over most of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and\nthe NW Caribbean. An upper-level low spinning over the NW Caribbean\nis enhancing this convective activity. Showers and thunderstorms\nare also occurring over Hispaniola, and over parts of the SW Caribbean,\nincluding the Atlantic coast of SE Nicaragua.\nFor the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge extends E to W along\nabout 26N to the NW Bahamas. The pressure gradient between the \nridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds \noffshore Colombia and western Venezuela through early next week. \nModerate to rough seas will prevail over these waters. Elsewhere,\nmoderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA stationary front extends from 30N48W to 28N60W to near 30.5N75W.\nScattered showers and thunderstorms are in the vicinity of the \nfront, more concentrated from 26N to 29N between 60W and 65W.\nGentle to moderate NE to E winds are in the wake of the front. \nThe remainder of the forecast waters are dominated by high pressure,\nanchored by a 1023 mb high pressure located E of Bermuda near\n32N60W, and another 1024 mb high pressure centered E of the Azores\nnear 37N22W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and\nlower pressures over NW Africa is promoting moderate to fresh NE\nwinds N of 27N and E of 25W, including the Canary Islands. Moderate\nto fresh trade winds are observed over most of the tropical Atlantic,\nand S of 22N between 70W and 74W. Moderate or weaker winds prevail\nelsewhere. Seas are in general moderate across the Atlantic forecast\nwaters. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will build SW into the\nwaters into the weekend, with light to gentle winds expected N of\n21N closest to the high, and moderate to fresh trades S of 21N. \nBy the start of next week, winds will diminish some as the high \nweakens and the pressure gradient relaxes.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1209172382739169282", "issued": "2026-09-10T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1209172382739169282"}