{"msg": "895\nAXPZ20 KNHC 102127\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Thu Sep 10 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2100 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Norbert is centered near 16.5N 120.5W at 10/2100\nUTC, moving west at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50\nkt. Peak seas are 15 ft within 90 nm NE quadrant of the center. \nNumerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within \n60 nm of center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection\nis elsewhere from 15N to 18N between 117W and 119W. Norbert is\nmoving toward the west, and this motion is expected to continue \nthrough Friday. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by \nFriday night. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next few\ndays.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nFourteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 96W north of 03N through SE Mexico. The\nwave is moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate to \nisolated strong conveciton is seen from 09N to 11N between 96W \nand 99W.\n \nA tropical wave has its axis along 111W north of 03N. It is \nmoving westward at about 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated \nstrong convection is observed from 10N to 17N between 102W and \n112W. Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds and moderate seas \nare on the E side of the wave axis from 13N to 17N to about 107W\nbased on scatterometer data.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N96W to 10N110W, \nthen continues SW of T.S. Norbert from 11N120W to 07N130W to \n11N140W. In addition to the convection associated with Norbert \nand the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong \nconvection is noted from 03N to 07N between 78W and 88W, and \nfrom 00N to 10N W of 132W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nMarine conditions are improving in the Revillagigedo Islands as\nT.S. Norbert continues to move westward and away from the islands.\nModerate to fresh easterly winds and seas up to 6 ft are still \nnoted in the vicinity of Clarion Island. Fresh to strong N gap \nwinds continue across the Tehuantepec region and downwind to near\n14N. Moderate to locally rough seas are with these winds. Light \nto gentle winds dominate the offshore waters of Baja California \nunder the influence of a weak ridge, anchored by a 1017 mb high \npressure centered near 30N127W. Light to gentle winds and moderate\nseas are present elsewhere across the remaining Mexican offshore\nwaters. \nFor the forecast, Norbert will move to 16.5N 122.5W Fri morning,\n16.5N 124.9W Fri afternoon, 16.6N 127.1W Sat morning, 17.0N \n129.0W Sat afternoon, 17.6N 130.7W Sun morning, and strengthen to\na hurricane near 18.0N 132.4W Sun afternoon. Norbert will weaken\nto a tropical storm near 18.4N 136.1W Mon afternoon. As Norbert\ncontinues to move westward, a stronger ridge will build across \nthe offshore waters of Baja California, bringing moderate to \nlocally fresh NW to N winds by Sun into early next week. Winds \nwill also increase across the northern Gulf of California Fri and\nFri night, then again Mon and Mon night due to the pressure \ngradient between the ridge and the meandering trough that is in\nplace in that area. Otherwise, fresh to strong N to NE gap winds\nwill continue to pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through \nearly Fri. \nLooking ahead, showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad\narea of low pressure are located several hundred miles southwest\nof the southwestern Mexico coast. Gradual development of this \nsystem is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form \nby early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward \nover central and western portions of the East Pacific. This\nsystem has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7\ndays, and a low chance through 48 hours.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nRecent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh to strong\nNE to E winds across the Papagayo region and downwind to near \n90W. Moderate to rough seas are within these winds. Gentle to \nmoderate southerly winds are across the offshore waters between \nEcuador and the Galapagos Islands along with moderate seas in SW\nswell. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are evident just W of the\nGalapagos Islands. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds with \nslight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Higher winds are noted\nnear thunderstorms along the monsoon trough. \nFor the forecast, a ridge north of the area will continue to\nsupport pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate to \nrough seas across the Papagayo region, mainly at night, through \nMon night. Seas are forecast to build to 8 or 9 ft with the \nstrongest winds. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate southerly winds \nand moderate seas are expected over the waters between Ecuador \nand the Galapagos through early next week. Moderate or lighter \nwinds and moderate seas in long period SW swell are forecast \nelsewhere.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease, see the Special Features section for more information \nabout Tropical Storm Norbert. \nAside from T.S. Norbert and the tropical waves previously \nmentioned, a surface trough is analyzed from 22N131W to 13N132W. \nRecent scatterometer data indicate the wind shift associated with\nthe trough, with moderate to fresh winds near the northern end \nof it. A ridge dominates the waters N of 20N and W of 110W. \nGentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted under the \ninfluence of the ridge, with the exception of light to gentle \nwinds N of 27N and W of 130W as well as N of 20N E of 118W to the\ncoast of Baja California. Moderate or weaker winds along with \nseas of 5 to 7 ft are over the remainder of the eastern Pacific \nforecast region.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Norbert will move to 16.5N 122.5W \nFri morning, 16.5N 124.9W Fri afternoon, 16.6N 127.1W Sat morning,\n17.0N 129.0W Sat afternoon, 17.6N 130.7W Sun morning, and strengthen\nto a hurricane near 18.0N 132.4W Sun afternoon. Norbert will weaken\nto a tropical storm near 18.4N 136.1W Mon afternoon.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1209156515440033794", "issued": "2026-09-10T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1209156515440033794"}