{"id": "1209147372164317186", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-10T21:00:00Z", "msg": "684\nWTPA44 PHFO 102041\nTCDCP4\n \nTropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number  59\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Thu Sep 10 2026\n \n \nInfrared satellite imagery over the last couple of hours depicts\nLowell's convection concentrated over a small area within its\nnortheastern quadrant. The system also appears heavily sheared, with\nLowell's low-level center exposed and displaced from the convection.\nSubjective Dvorak intensity estimates from HFO and JTWC provided\nLowell with a final T-number of 1.5 and 2.0, respectively, which\nwould put the intensity at around 25-30 kt. However, given the\nearlier higher scatterometer winds, and some lingering convection\ncurrently, the initial intensity was only lowered slightly to 45\nkt.\n \nThe initial motion was estimated at 270/10 kt. Lowell continues to\nbe steered by a mid-level high pressure system centered to the\nnortheast, with a cutoff low based in the north central Pacific\nexpected to dive down and turn the system to the northwest heading\ninto the weekend. Lowell's forward motion is then expected to\ndecrease over the weekend as it finds itself wedged between two low-\nto mid-level ridges. Track models continue to exhibit a wide spread\nbeyond 36 h, differing in both how the cutoff low alters Lowell's\ntrack and how slow the storm motion becomes once it's centered\nbetween the ridges. The official track forecast was little changed\nacross the first 36 h, with the main changes beyond that period.\nGuidance generally pulls Lowell a little more northwestward toward\nthe cutoff low before drifting southward at a slow motion as Lowell\nbecomes more vertically shallow. This turn to the south was made\nslightly wider to reflect the global model consensus.\n \nLowell remain in a hostile environment characterized by moderate\nvertical wind shear, dry mid-level air, and marginal SSTs. Despite\nthis environment, intensity guidance depicts a slight increase in\nmax winds around early Saturday morning, suggesting that the cutoff\nlow may briefly enhance Lowell's convection. Simulated satellite\nimagery from the GFS and ECMWF, however, suggest that Lowell's\nconvection may wither before then, with post-tropical transition\npotentially occurring before this interaction takes place. The\nlatest intensity forecast holds Lowell's intensity relatively steady\nfor the first day or so, before showing a brief increase in\nintensity at 48 h. Thereafter, gradual weakening is expected to\noccur through early next week. The forecast has Lowell becoming\npost-tropical in 60 h, a little earlier than the previous forecast,\nthough it remains possible this could occur even sooner than shown\nhere.\n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials and avoid\nareas of downed power lines and flooding. Ensure generators are\nproperly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from\ndwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During\nclean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink\nplenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  10/2100Z 29.0N 168.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  11/0600Z 29.0N 170.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  11/1800Z 29.6N 171.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  12/0600Z 31.2N 172.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  12/1800Z 32.8N 173.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 60H  13/0600Z 33.9N 174.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 72H  13/1800Z 33.8N 175.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  14/1800Z 32.9N 175.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  15/1800Z 31.0N 175.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n \n"}