{"id": "1209075308194693122", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-10T15:00:00Z", "msg": "505\nWTPA44 PHFO 101434\nTCDCP4\n \nTropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number  58\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Thu Sep 10 2026\n\n\nInfrared satellite imagery over the last several hours suggests\nthat the convection over Lowell's northeastern quadrant is\ndegrading. Lowell's low-level center is also becoming increasingly\ndisplaced from this convection. The last subjective Dvorak\nintensity estimates from HFO and JTWC both rated Lowell at 2.0/2.0\nor 30 kt, however scatterometer data from 0700 UTC depicted max\nwinds closer to 55 kt. With Lowell's convection decreasing, the\ninitial intensity was lowered slightly to 50 kt.\n \nThe initial motion was estimated at 270/13 kt. Lowell's westward \nmotion continues to be steered by a mid-level high centered to its \nnorth-northeast. Heading into the weekend, Lowell is forecast to \nturn northwestward as it interacts with a cutoff low over the \nnorth-central Pacific. After which, the storm will become wedged \nbetween two mid-level highs, greatly inhibiting its forward motion. \nThe track models exhibit a wide spread in Lowell's motion beyond 36 \nh, with global models suggesting that the storm will more or less \nremain stationary over the open central Pacific when it is caught \nbetween the aforementioned mid-level highs. Because of this, little \nwas changed in the official track forecast, save for minor leftward \nadjustments within the first 36 h given Lowell's due westward \ninitial motion.\n\nLowell is expected to remain in a hostile environment characterized \nby moderate vertical wind shear, dry mid-level air, and marginal \nSSTs. In fact, simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and the \nECMWF suggest that Lowell could become post-tropical within the next \n24 h. The main complication, however, is that Lowell interacting \nwith the aforementioned cutoff low could work to re-invigorate \nconvection heading into the weekend. Because of this, forecasting \nLowell's intensity and post-tropical transition is difficult, as the \nstorm's environment favors steady weakening, but another flare-up of \nconvection from this cutoff low could keep the intensity steady \nthrough the weekend. Therefore, Lowell's intensity forecast was kept \nrelatively steady through the first 48 h, followed by weakening late \nthis weekend into early next week. Lowell is ultimately anticipated \nto dissipate after interacting with a frontal system early next \nweek. \n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials and avoid\nareas of downed power lines and flooding. Ensure generators are\nproperly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from\ndwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During\nclean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink\nplenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  10/1500Z 29.1N 167.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  11/0000Z 29.1N 169.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  11/1200Z 29.2N 171.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  12/0000Z 30.0N 172.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  12/1200Z 31.7N 172.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 60H  13/0000Z 33.0N 173.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  13/1200Z 33.1N 174.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 96H  14/1200Z 32.4N 175.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  15/1200Z 31.0N 175.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n \n"}