{"id": "1209007772884369410", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-10T09:00:00Z", "msg": "102\nWTPA44 PHFO 100851\nTCDCP4\n \nTropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number  57\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 PM HST Wed Sep 09 2026\n\nProxy-visible and infrared satellite images show that Lowell is \nproducing minimal convection on the northern side of the storm. The \ncenter of the cyclone is exposed and based on water vapor imagery, \nplenty of dry air has made its way to the center. Nonetheless, a \nrecent ASCAT pass showed a large area of 50-53 kt vectors to the \nnorthwest of the center, indicating that Lowell was stronger than \npreviously estimated. Based on this data, the initial intensity has \nbeen set to 55 kt.\n \nThe storm is continuing to move to the west around 280 degrees at 12 \nkt. Currently the cyclone is being guided by a low- to mid-level \nridge located to the north, which should keep it on this westward \nheading for the next couple of days. After that, a mid- to \nupper-level trough to the northwest is expected to cutoff and become \nthe main steering flow for Lowell. This should result in a northerly \nturn for the storm as it interacts with the cutoff low around 36-48 \nh. As the cutoff low moves off to the east, Lowell should take up a \nmore westward motion for a short period of time. Then, once the \ncutoff low pulls away completely, the shallow circulation of Lowell \nwill likely be stuck between two low-level ridges, thus leaving the \nstorm to drift slowly off to the south as a remnant low. The current \nNHC track forecast is very close to the previous one, however there \nwere some small nudges made to the new track forecast after 36 h. \nThis prediction is close to the most recent Google DeepMind (GDMI) \nand HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) aids.\n \nThe cyclone is expected to remain in a hostile environment with \nmoderate wind shear, plenty of dry air, and marginal SSTs. \nTherefore, a gradual weakening trend is expected for the next 24 h. \nBased on the simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF, \nLowell could lack enough convection to be considered a tropical \ncyclone. However, some positive interaction with the previously \nmentioned cutoff low could foster the development of new convection, \nwhich in turn could allow for Lowell to maintain its intensity \nthrough baroclinic processes. After 60-72 h, the cyclone will be on \nthe subsident side of the cutoff low, which will likely lead to the \nstorm becoming post-tropical as the convection dissipates. It should \nbe noted that there is a fair chance that the convection fails to \nregenerate due to the dry air and shear, and thus Lowell could \nbecome post-tropical sooner than forecast. The updated NHC intensity \nforecast shows no net intensity change between 24-72 h, although \nsmall fluctuations could occur as described above.\n \n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials and avoid\nareas of downed power lines and flooding. Ensure generators are\nproperly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from\ndwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During\nclean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink\nplenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  10/0900Z 29.2N 166.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  10/1800Z 29.2N 168.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  11/0600Z 29.3N 170.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  11/1800Z 30.1N 171.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  12/0600Z 31.4N 172.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 60H  12/1800Z 33.0N 172.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  13/0600Z 33.4N 173.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  14/0600Z 32.8N 175.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  15/0600Z 31.4N 175.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n \n"}