{"msg": "216\nAXPZ20 KNHC 100407\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Thu Sep 10 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0350 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Depression Fourteen-E is centered near 16.4N 116.6W at\n10/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum\ncentral pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30\nkt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are near 11 ft within 120 nm N\nsemicircle of the low. Numerous moderate to strong convection is\nnoted from 14N to 18N between 112W and 117W. Scattered moderate \nto isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 04N to 14N\nbetween 113W and 123W. A generally westward motion is expected \nover the next couple of days. Some strengthening is forecast \nduring the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to \nbecome a tropical storm on Thursday. \nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nFourteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 91W north of 02N through Guatemala. The\nwave is moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate to \nisolated strong conveciton is from 02N to 16N between 85W and \n95W.\n \nA tropical wave has its axis along 103W north of 02N. It is \nmoving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated \nstrong convection is from 04N to 17N between 96W and 110W.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from 10N84W to 08N95W to 13N110W,\nthen continues SW of T.D. Fourteen-E from 12N120W to beyond \n09N140W. In addition to the convection associated with T.D.\nFourteen-E and the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated\nstrong convection is noted N of 04N E of 84W to the coast of \nColombia, and from 01N to 08N W of 122W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nFresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas associated with \nthe outer periphery of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E are \naffecting the Revillagigedo Islands, particularly Clarion \nIsland. Fresh to strong N gap winds continue across the \nTehuantepec region and downwind to near 14N. Moderate to locally \nrough seas are with these winds. Light to gentle winds dominate \nthe offshore waters of Baja California under the influence of a \nweak ridge extending between the peninsula and the remnant low of\nMarie, which is now just north of the forecast area. Gentle to \nmoderate SE to S winds are evident over the northern Gulf of \nCalifornia while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere across \nthe remainder of the Gulf. Seas are 1 to 3 ft, highest near the \nentrance to the Gulf. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in \nSW swell are present elsewhere across the Mexican offshore \nwaters, with the exception of moderate to fresh winds just ahead \nthe tropical wave located along 103W.\nFor the forecast, Fourteen-E will strengthen to a tropical storm\nnear 16.7N 118.5W Thu morning, move to 16.8N 121.1W Thu evening,\n16.8N 123.6W Fri morning, 16.7N 126.0W Fri evening, 17.0N 128.3W\nSat morning, and strengthen to a hurricane near 17.4N 129.8W Sat\nevening. Fourteen-E will change little in intensity as it moves \nnear 18.0N 133.2W late Sun. A trailing tropical wave is forecast \nto provide mainly moderate to fresh SE winds to the SW Mexican \noffshore waters through Thu. Otherwise, fresh to strong N to NE \ngap winds will continue to pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec \nthrough early Fri. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong northeast to east winds are blowing in the Papagayo\nregion and downwind to 90W, with moderate to rough. Gentle to \nmoderate SE to S winds are across the offshores between Ecuador \nand the Galapagos Islands along with moderate seas. Otherwise, \nmoderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas prevail\nelsewhere.\nFor the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support \nfresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate to rough seas across\nthe Gulf of Papagayo region through Fri, then mainly moderate to\nfresh winds and moderate seas are expected. Meanwhile, moderate \nto fresh southerly winds are expected over the waters between \nEcuador and the Galapagos through tonight, then diminishing some\nafterward. Moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas in long\nperiod SW swell are forecast elsewhere.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease, see the Special Features section for more information \nabout Tropical Depression Fourteen-E\nThe remnant low of Marie is N of area, however,fresh to strong \nSE to S winds and rough seas are still noted N of 29N between \n127W and 130W. Seas 8 ft or greater associated with this system \ncover the waters N of 27N between 125W and 135W. Elsewhere, \nmoderate or weaker winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over \nthe remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. \nFor the forecast, Fourteen-E will strengthen to a tropical storm\nnear 16.7N 118.5W Thu morning, move to 16.8N 121.1W Thu evening,\n16.8N 123.6W Fri morning, 16.7N 126.0W Fri evening, 17.0N 128.3W\nSat morning, and strengthen to a hurricane near 17.4N 129.8W Sat\nevening. Fourteen-E will change little in intensity as it moves \nnear 18.0N 133.2W late Sun. \nLooking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form \nseveral hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja \nCalifornia Peninsula this weekend or early next week. Some \ngradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical \ndepression could form early next week while the system moves \ngenerally westward. This system has a medium chance of tropical \ncyclone formation through 7 days.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1208952028664168450", "issued": "2026-09-10T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1208952028664168450"}