{"id": "1208933525163114498", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-10T03:00:00Z", "msg": "165\nWTPZ44 KNHC 100233\nTCDEP4\n \nTropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142026\n800 PM PDT Wed Sep 09 2026\n\nThere has been no significant increase in the overall organization \nof the tropical cyclone over the past several hours.  The system is \nproducing vigorous deep convection well east of the estimated center \nlocation with cloud tops to -80 deg C or colder.  These heavy \nshowers and thunderstorms are not very well organized with little \nevidence of convective banding at this time.  There is some westerly \nshear over the depression since the low-level center is near the \nwestern edge of the main cloud mass.  Given that the system has not \nbecome much better organized since the previous advisory, the \nintensity is held at 30 kt for now.  This is just a little below the \nsubjective Dvorak estimate.\n\nThe center appears to have reformed in the low-level vorticity \nmaximum on the northern side of the broad circulation, and is a \nlittle to the north of the previous track.  A mid-tropospheric ridge \nshould prevail to the north of the system for the next several days, \nwhich should keep the cyclone moving on a generally westward track.  \nLate in the forecast period, the ridge shifts westward and builds a \nlittle.  This could result in a gradual turn to the left around day \n5.  The official forecast is a little north of the previous NHC \ntrack and is close to the latest corrected consensus, HCCA, \nguidance.\n \nThe system is expected to be in a reasonably conductive environment \nfor intensification in a few days.  However, the current westerly \nshear could be an impediment to short-term strengthening.  Also, \nsome arc clouds have been seen emanating from the cyclone on visible \nsatellite imagery, which is usually indicative of the presence of \nsome dry mid-level air.  However, these negative factors are \nexpected to be short-lived, and the system is forecast to strengthen \nand eventually become a hurricane.  The official intensity forecast \nis similar to the simple and corrected consensus intensity model \npredictions and is the same as in the previous advisory.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  10/0300Z 16.4N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  10/1200Z 16.7N 118.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  11/0000Z 16.8N 121.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  11/1200Z 16.8N 123.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  12/0000Z 16.7N 126.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 60H  12/1200Z 17.0N 128.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  13/0000Z 17.4N 129.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  14/0000Z 18.0N 133.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  15/0000Z 18.1N 136.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n \n"}