{"id": "1208863918930395138", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-09T21:00:00Z", "msg": "740\nWTPZ44 KNHC 092039\nTCDEP4\n \nTropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142026\n200 PM PDT Wed Sep 09 2026\n\nSatellite imagery indicates that an area of low pressure (Invest \nEP96) has developed a more organized circulation, along with \npersistent convection east of its center. Scatterometry data from \naround 1700 UTC revealed a slightly elongated but closed circulation \nwith a max wind of around 30 kt. Subjective Dvorak analysis from \nTAFB rated this system at 2.5/2.5, or an intensity at around 35 kt. \nGiven the scatterometry data and satellite imagery, advisories have \nbeen initiated on Tropical Depression 14-E, with an initial \nintensity of 30 kt.\n\nThe initial motion of this system was estimated at 285/8 kt, but \nthis is uncertain since the system has only recently formed. Global \nmodels depict mid-level ridging building north of the depression, \nso a primarily west to west-northwest motion is expected over the \nnext several days. By late this weekend into early next week, the\nguidance depicts a slight weakening in the ridge to the north that \nwill shift the track slightly more west-northwestward, before the \nridge amplifies once again and pushes the system \nwest-southwestward.  The official track forecast reflects a blend of \nthe HCCA and GDMI, which is on the southern side of the guidance \nenvelope. \n\nThe depression is expected to enter an environment favorable for \ngradual strengthening. The SHIPS guidance depicts low vertical wind \nshear, as well as ample mid-level moisture and favorable SSTs, which \nshould allow the depression to strengthen to a tropical storm \ntonight or Thursday and into a hurricane later this weekend. The \nofficial intensity forecast reflects a slower strengthening trend \nwithin the first couple of days, given that scatterometry data still \ndepicts a depression with a slightly elongated center. By the end of \nthe week, however, steady strengthening is forecast, and the NHC \nprediction lies on the higher end of the guidance envelope given the \nfavorable environment ahead of the depression. \n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  09/2100Z 15.7N 115.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  10/0600Z 15.9N 117.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  10/1800Z 15.8N 119.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  11/0600Z 15.7N 122.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  11/1800Z 15.6N 124.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 60H  12/0600Z 15.9N 126.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  12/1800Z 16.2N 127.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  13/1800Z 17.4N 130.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  14/1800Z 17.9N 133.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n \n"}