{"id": "1208793232814342146", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-09T15:00:00Z", "msg": "768\nWTPA44 PHFO 091440\nTCDCP4\n \nTropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number  54\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Wed Sep 09 2026\n \nInfrared satellite imagery over the last several hours suggest that \nLowell's convective shield is continuing to deteriorate as drier air \nwraps into the storm's core. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity \nestimates from HFO and JTWC classified the system at T3.0/45 kt, \nwhile objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ranged from 44-51 kt. Using \nthese estimates and the latest satellite trends, the initial \nintensity was lowered to 50 kt. \n\nThe initial motion is north-northwestward at 330/11 kt. A mid-level \nlow centered over the north-central Pacific, along with high \npressure to its east, is driving Lowell's north-northwestward \nmotion. As the low dissipates, Lowell is expected to turn \nwest-northwestward or westward along the southern flank of the high, \nthen back toward the northwest as it rounds the western edge of the \nhigh. The track guidance exhibits significant spread late this week \nand into the weekend as Lowell becomes wedged between two mid-level \nridges, resulting in a weak steering environment. Thus, the latest \nNHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, near the \nmiddle of the guidance envelope but given the spread there is low \nconfidence in the extended forecast.\n\nAlthough the SHIPS guidance indicates that sea surface temperatures \nwill remain relatively steady over the next 48 h, a dry mid-level \nenvironment and moderate vertical wind shear should induce gradual \nweakening. The intensity guidance generally depicts further \nweakening over the next 36 h, followed by a slight increase in \nintensity over the weekend when the aforementioned mid-level low \ncould briefly enhance Lowell's convection. However, because the \nbroader environment remains hostile, the NHC intensity forecast \nshows gradual weakening through the entire period, with the \nintensity merely leveling off just after 36 h during the anticipated \nwindow of favorable trough interaction. The official NHC intensity \nforecast is unchanged from the previous advisory, and Lowell is \nstill expected to become a post-tropical cyclone early next week.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials and avoid\nareas of downed power lines and flooding. Ensure generators are\nproperly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from\ndwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During\nclean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink\nplenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  09/1500Z 28.1N 162.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  10/0000Z 28.8N 164.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  10/1200Z 29.0N 166.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  11/0000Z 28.8N 168.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  11/1200Z 28.9N 170.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 60H  12/0000Z 29.6N 171.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  12/1200Z 31.0N 171.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  13/1200Z 32.7N 173.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  14/1200Z 34.0N 175.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n \n"}