{"msg": "834\nAXPZ20 KNHC 090948\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Wed Sep 9 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0930 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nShowers and thunderstorms associated with a 1007 mb low pressure,\nInvest EP96, centered near 16N112W or several hundred miles \nsouth-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California \nPeninsula, continue to show signs of organization. Numerous\nmoderate to strong convection is from 12N to 20N between 109W \nand 116W. Although the system does not have a closed surface \ncirculation yet, further development is expected and a tropical \ndepression is likely to form during the next couple of days while\nit moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. There is a\nhigh chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next two \nand seven days.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 84W north of 03N through Costa Rica,\nNicaragua and E Honduras. The wave is moving westward at 10 to \n15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convecton is from 02N to 08N\nE of 90W.\n \nA tropical wave has its axis along 98W north of 01N. It is \nmoving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong \nconvection extends from 00N to 17N between 90W and 108W. \n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from 09N85W to 07N100W to Invest\nEP96 1007 mb low pressure near 16N112W to 13N127W and beyond \n09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is active\nfrom 12N to 18N between 122W and 131W, and from 01N to 09N W of \n125W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nA 1007 mb low pressure, Invest EP96, centered near 16N112W has \nhigh chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next two \nand seven days. Fresh to strong winds in the N semicircle of the \nlow are affecting the Revillagigedo Islands along with moderate \nto rough seas. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec fresh to strong winds \nare pulsing and seas have remain moderate. Clusters of showers \nand thunderstorms are active across the SW Mexican offshores \nassociated with Invest EP96 and a trailing tropical wave near \n98W. Farther north, a weak pressure gradient across the region \ndue to the presence of the remnant low of Marie to the west of \nthe Baja California Norte is supporting mainly light to gentle \nwinds off the Baja Peninsula, and moderate or weaker winds and \nslight seas in the Gulf of California.\nFor the forecast, regardless of development, the EP96 will \ncontinue to affect the Revillagigedo Islands with fresh to strong\nwinds and moderate to rough seas through this evening. The \ntrailing tropical wave is forecast to provide mainly moderate to \nfresh SE winds to the SW Mexican offshores today through Thu. \nOtherwise, fresh to strong N to NE gap winds will continue to \npulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Fri.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of \nPapagayo region with moderate seas to 6 ft in southwest swell. \nGentle to moderate S to SE winds are across the offshores between\nEcuador and the Galapagos Islands along with moderate seas. \nOtherwise, moderate or weaker winds along with slight to moderate\nseas are elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support \nfresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate to rough seas across\nthe Gulf of Papagayo region through Sun night. Meanwhile, \nmoderate to fresh southerly winds are expected over the waters \nbetween Ecuador and the Galapagos today through Wed night, then \ndiminishing some afterward. Moderate or lighter winds are \nexpected elsewhere. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nSee the Special Features for further info on Invest EP96 with\nhigh potential of development.\nThe remnant low of Marie is centered 27N128W and has an \nestimated pressure of 1003 mb. A recent scatterometer pass\nconfirm the continuation of strong to near-gale force winds\nwithin the E semicircle of the low. Seas to 14 ft are ongoing \nwithin 390 nm E semicircle of the low per recent altimeter data,\nwith surrounding swell of 8 ft or greater extending over the \nwaters north of 20N and west of 124W. Farther south, SW swell to\n8 ft originating in the Southern Hemisphere is reaching the \nequator between 100W and 130W, and mixing with northerly swell. \nElsewhere, moderate or weaker winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft\nare over the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. This \nswell area is forecast to expand eastward through today as the \nprimary swell direction becomes northwest to north. Seas from \nthis swell are expected to be 7 to 9 ft.\nFor the forecast, aside from the Special Feature indicating the\npotential of tropical cyclone development from Invest EP96, an \narea of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles \nsouth of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula this \nweekend or early next week. Some gradual development is possible \nthereafter, and a tropical depression could form early next week \nwhile the system moves generally west-northwestward. Chance of\ntropical cyclone development is low within the next two days and\nmedium within the next seven days.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1208735891278626818", "issued": "2026-09-09T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1208735891278626818"}