{"id": "1208724700164292610", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-09T09:00:00Z", "msg": "289\nWTPA44 PHFO 090851\nTCDCP4\n \nTropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number  53\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 PM HST Tue Sep 08 2026\n \nProxy-visible satellite and water vapor imagery show that Lowell has \ncontinued to deteriorate as the cyclone has been adversely affected \nby dry air and wind shear. The center of the cyclone has moved \nunderneath an area of deep convection that has formed recently, \nhowever the bulk of the convection is on the northern side of the \ncirculation. Recent subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are 45-55 \nkt, while the objective intensity estimates are lower in the range \nof 41-46 kt. Since earlier scatterometer data showed stronger winds \nthan suggested by the satellite estimates, the initial intensity is \nonly lowered to 55 kt for this advisory.\n \nLowell is currently moving northward around 12 kt, as the storm is \nbeing guided by a mid-level low to the northwest and a ridge from \nthe north-northeast. On Wednesday, a more gradual shift towards the \nnorthwest should occur as high pressure builds in from the north. \nThe storm is then expected to lose speed on Thursday as the cyclone \nbecomes more shallow and lower-level flow becomes more dominant. \nThere is a good degree of uncertainty in the track around 72 h, as \nLowell approaches another upper-level low from the northwest. The \nguidance generally has the cyclone turning to the north or \nnorth-northwest around Friday and into the weekend. There is a large \nspread in the guidance about the timing and how far north the storm \nwill go. Given the spread in the track models, there is a higher \nthan normal uncertainty in the long-range NHC track forecast. This \nforecast is similar to the previous prediction, but nudged to the \nright based on the latest consensus aids.\n\nLowell is expected to remain in a hostile environment with moderate \nwind shear and dry air, thus a gradual weakening trend is expected \nto occur. The simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF \nindicate that Lowell could lose most of its deep convection by \nThursday, and potentially become a post-tropical cyclone on Friday. \nHowever, the previously mentioned second upper-level low could help \nLowell build some deep convection late Friday into Saturday. This in \nturn could cause some slight strengthening of the storm, but there \nis uncertainty regarding the stucture of Lowell at that time. \nTherefore, there is a good degree of uncertainty with this portion \nof the intensity forecast. The current NHC intensity forecast is \nsimilar to the previous prediction and calls for Lowell to become a \npost-tropical remnant low around day 5. \n\n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials and avoid\nareas of downed power lines and flooding. Ensure generators are\nproperly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from\ndwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During\nclean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink\nplenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.\n \n2. Large waves will continue to produce life-threatening surf and\nrip current conditions during the next day or so along exposed\ncoasts of the Hawaiian Islands.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  09/0900Z 27.3N 161.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  09/1800Z 28.4N 162.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  10/0600Z 29.0N 165.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  10/1800Z 28.8N 167.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  11/0600Z 28.7N 169.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 60H  11/1800Z 29.1N 171.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  12/0600Z 30.3N 171.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  13/0600Z 32.6N 173.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  14/0600Z 33.6N 174.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n \n"}