{"id": "1208651945005842434", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-09T03:00:00Z", "msg": "505\nWTPA44 PHFO 090241\nTCDCP4\n \nTropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number  52\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Tue Sep 08 2026\n \nThe structure of Lowell continues to deteriorate this afternoon as \ndry mid-level air and wind shear affect the tropical storm. The \nlow-level center of circulation is now almost completely exposed, \nwith deep convection displaced well to the north. In addition, a \nstrong mid-level low is interacting with Lowell and is contributing \nto southwesterly to westerly wind shear across the system. Recent \nsubjective Dvorak intensity estimates range from 55 to 65 kt, while \nobjective estimates are somewhat lower, generally between 46 and 50 \nkt. The initial intensity is set at 60 kt for this advisory. An \nearlier scatterometer pass also provided valuable guidance in \nrefining Lowell's wind radii. \n\nLowell is moving northward around 13 kt, steered primarily by the \naforementioned mid-level low to the northwest and ridging to the \nnorth-northeast. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected \ntonight through Wednesday as the low interacts with Lowell and high \npressure builds to the north. The storm is forecast to slow down on \nThursday as Lowell becomes increasingly shallow and begins to move \nmore in response to the low-level flow. The track forecast becomes \nconsiderably more complex beyond 72 h as Lowell encounters another \nelongated upper-low approaching from the northwest. Most model \nguidance indicates that Lowell should turn toward the north or \nnorthwest late this week into this weekend, but there is \nconsiderable spread in the guidance regarding both the timing of \nthis turn and how far north the cyclone will ultimately track. The \nlatest NHC forecast remains on the southern side of the guidance \nenvelope and is close to the previous track, with the forecast lying \nclosest to HCCA and the Google DeepMind solutions. \n \nModerate wind shear and unfavorable upper-level winds will continue \nto support gradual weakening of Lowell over the next several days. \nSimulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF suggest that \nLowell could struggle to maintain organized deep convection by \nThursday, potentially bringing the cyclone closer to becoming \npost-tropical on Friday. However, the second elongated upper-level \nlow pressure system may help reinvigorate convection late Friday \ninto Saturday, which could provide an opportunity for slight \nstrengthening during that time. The latest NHC intensity forecast is \nvery close to the previous advisory and calls for Lowell to become a \npost-tropical remnant low around day 5. Confidence in the \nlonger-range track and intensity forecast is lower than average. \n\n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Post-storm safety:  Follow advice of local officials and avoid \nareas of downed power lines and flooding. Ensure generators are \nproperly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from \ndwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During \nclean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink \nplenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.\n \n2. The threat of locally moderate to heavy rainfall associated with \nLowell will linger over parts of the eastern Hawaiian Islands into \nWednesday. This may result in additional flooding of urban and \nlow-lying portions of the Big Island and may promote instances of \nnew flooding or prolong any ongoing flooding elsewhere across the \nIslands.\n \n3. Large waves will continue to produce life-threatening surf and \nrip current conditions during the next day or so along exposed \ncoasts of the Hawaiian Islands.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  09/0300Z 26.2N 161.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  09/1200Z 27.7N 162.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  10/0000Z 28.7N 164.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  10/1200Z 28.8N 166.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  11/0000Z 28.5N 169.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 60H  11/1200Z 28.5N 170.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  12/0000Z 29.1N 171.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  13/0000Z 31.8N 172.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  14/0000Z 32.9N 175.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n \n"}