{"id": "1208579480594382850", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-08T21:00:00Z", "msg": "521\nWTPA44 PHFO 082033\nTCDCP4\n \nHurricane Lowell Discussion Number  51\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Tue Sep 08 2026\n\nLowell's structure has significantly degraded during the day, with \nthe center exposed on the southern side of the circulation, well \nremoved from a disheveled area of deep convection.  Satellite\nestimates are basically falling as fast as the Dvorak rules (or \ncontinuity) allow, and the initial intensity is set to 65 kt as a \nblend of all the data.  A scatterometer pass should be available for \nthe next advisory to see how much weakening has actually occurred.  \n\nThe hurricane is still moving northward, now at about 13 kt. Model \nguidance is in better agreement during the next couple of days on \nLowell bending leftward and slowing down, turning westward on \nThursday.  This evolution is due to the current mid-tropospheric \ntrough over the Central Pacific weakening as a mid-level ridge to \nbuilds in to the north.  A faster northwest motion is expected on \nFriday as Lowell interacts with another mid-latitude trough, though \nthe model spread grows by the weekend.  The new forecast is close to \nthe previous forecast, on the southerly side of the guidance \nenvelope,  but isn't particularly confident due to the trough \ninteraction.\n\nA continued slow weakening of Lowell is anticipated for the next \nseveral days while the system moves over marginally warm SSTs, \nwithin a dry, moderate shear environment.  The system will likely \nstruggle to produce deep convection by Thursday, and Lowell could \nbe close to becoming a post-tropical cyclone on Friday.  However, \nthe next trough will probably re-energize the deep convection and \ncause a slight re-strengthening over the weekend.  The only \nNHC forecast change of note is that much of the guidance is showing \nLowell either as frontal or without convection by day 5, so \npost-tropical is indicated then.  Similar to the track forecast, \nthe intensity forecast is uncertain at the end.  \n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Post-storm safety:  Follow advice of local officials and avoid\nareas of downed power lines and flooding. Ensure generators are \nproperly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from \ndwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During \nclean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink \nplenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.\n \n2. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Lowell will linger \nover the eastern Hawaiian Islands through Wednesday. This may \nproduce areas of flooding for urban and low-lying regions, with \nsignificant flash flooding and mudslides possible across portions of \nthe Big Island.\n \n3. Large waves will continue to produce life-threatening surf and\nrip current conditions during the next day or so along exposed\ncoasts of the Hawaiian Islands.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  08/2100Z 25.1N 160.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  09/0600Z 26.8N 161.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  09/1800Z 28.4N 162.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  10/0600Z 28.9N 165.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  10/1800Z 28.6N 168.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 60H  11/0600Z 28.3N 170.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  11/1800Z 28.6N 171.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  12/1800Z 31.0N 172.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  13/1800Z 32.5N 174.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n \n"}