{"id": "1208511935398871042", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-08T15:00:00Z", "msg": "906\nWTPA44 PHFO 081449\nTCDCP4\n \nHurricane Lowell Discussion Number  50\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Tue Sep 08 2026\n\nLowell is quickly weakening.  Satellite images indicate that the \ncenter is exposed on the southern side of a decreasing area of deep \nconvection.  While recent flight-level aircraft wind data did not \nshow much weakening aloft, dropsondes suggested that these high \nwinds were not making it to the surface as typical, probably due to \nthe lack of local convection.  The initial wind speed is set to 80 \nkt, a compromise of higher aircraft data and lower satellite fixes \nfrom JTWC and HFO.  \n\nThe hurricane is moving quickly northward at about 16 kt.  Lowell \nshould gradually turn westward and slow down during the next couple \nof days as the mid- to upper-level trough steering the hurricane \nweakens and a mid-level ridge to builds in to the north.  At \nlong-range, another trough is forecast to interact with Lowell, \nwhich could cause it to accelerate to the northwest.  The new track \nforecast is very similar to the previous advisory, close to the \nlatest Google DeepMind and HCCA aids.  \n\nLowell should continue to quickly weaken today due to high shear, \nlikely becoming a tropical storm by the evening.  A slow weakening \nis expected then through late week due to marginally warm waters and \nsome shear, and Lowell could be close to becoming a post-tropical \ncyclone on Friday.  However, the next trough could re-energize the \ndeep convection, with a fair number of models showing modest \nre-strengthening over the weekend.  The new forecast is reduced in \nthe short term due to the poor initial structure, then is blended \nwith the previous one.  The end of the forecast should be considered \nvery uncertain given the aforementioned trough interaction.   \n \n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Kauai County: Hurricane conditions will continue for the next few \nhours, with the highest winds atop mountains and on windward and \nleeward slopes, causing widespread power outages.  If you use a \ngenerator, be sure it is placed at least 20 feet away from doors, \nwindows, and garages to avoid deadly carbon monoxide poisoning.\n \n2. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Hurricane Lowell will \ncontinue over the Hawaiian Islands through Wednesday. This may \nproduce significant flash flooding and mudslides, especially across \nKauai county and portions of the Big Island.\n \n3. Oahu: Tropical storm conditions are expected for the next few \nhours. Strong wind gusts could cause downed trees and power outages, \nespecially in areas of higher terrain.\n \n4. Large waves will continue to produce life-threatening surf and \nrip current conditions during the next day or so along exposed \ncoasts of the Hawaiian Islands.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  08/1500Z 23.7N 160.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  09/0000Z 25.8N 160.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  09/1200Z 27.7N 161.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  10/0000Z 28.6N 164.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  10/1200Z 28.6N 166.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 60H  11/0000Z 28.0N 169.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  11/1200Z 28.0N 170.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  12/1200Z 29.3N 171.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  13/1200Z 32.5N 174.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n \n"}