{"id": "1208441831261765634", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-08T09:00:00Z", "msg": "068\nWTPA44 PHFO 080852\nTCDCP4\n \nHurricane Lowell Discussion Number  49\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 PM HST Mon Sep 07 2026\n\nDangerous Hurricane Lowell is passing near the island of Niihau.\nBarking Sands and Lihue Airport on Kauai have reported wind gusts to\nhurricane force during the past few hours, and tropical-storm-force\ngusts have occurred at several locations on Oahu. The structure of\nLowell continues to be affected by the strong wind shear that an\nupper trough is imparting on the system. Aircraft data and WSF-M\npassive microwave images show the vortex is tilted toward the north\nwith height, and Air Force Hurricane Hunter reports indicate the\neyewall remains open. The central pressure has gradually risen\ntonight. However, the previous aircraft mission reported 700-mb\nflight-level winds up to 106 kt underneath cold cloud tops to the\nnorthwest of Lowell's center, which is the basis for maintaining the\n95-kt intensity. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft will continue\nto investigate Lowell through the overnight hours.\n \nThe hurricane is moving quickly north-northeastward (020/16 kt). The\ncore of Lowell will pass near or just west of Niihau during the next\nseveral hours before tracking slightly more northward later on\nTuesday. The mid- to upper-level trough steering the hurricane is\npredicted to weaken and lift northward over the next couple of days,\nwhich should allow a mid-level ridge to build in to the north and\nnortheast of Lowell. In response, Lowell is forecast to turn sharply\nnorthwestward and westward while slowing down through midweek. The\nmodels are in good agreement on this portion of the forecast, and\nonly small forward speed changes were made to catch up with the\nlatest multi-model consensus aids. The long-range forecast is\ncomplicated by the potential for another upper trough interaction,\nand the details are highly uncertain based on the spread in the\nmodels and ensembles. The NHC forecast shows a general northwestward\nmotion at 96-120 h, but longer-range confidence is low.\n \nWhile Lowell's intensity has changed little during the past 12-24 h,\nthe strong vertical wind shear has taken a toll on its structure. As\nLowell moves away from the Hawaiian Islands, weakening is expected\ndue to persistent shear and decreasing SSTs along its track. The NHC\nforecast shows Lowell becoming a tropical storm by 36 h and\ncontinuing to weaken through the end of the week, in best agreement\nwith the simple consensus aid (IVCN). There is a wider range of\npossibilities at days 4-5 related to the uncertainties described\nabove. Although the current forecast shows Lowell remaining a\ntropical cyclone, there is a distinct possibility the hostile\nconditions could cause it to lose organized convection and become\npost tropical even sooner.\n \n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Kauai County: The core of Lowell will pass near Niihau and just\nwest of Kauai overnight. Damaging hurricane conditions will continue\ninto early Tuesday, with the highest winds atop mountains and on\nwindward and leeward slopes. Large, damaging waves will continue to\nimpact exposed portions of the coastline, producing dangerous\ncoastal flooding and inundation of low-lying areas through early\nTuesday.\n \n2. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Lowell will overspread\nthe Hawaiian Islands through Wednesday. This may produce significant\nflash flooding and mudslides, especially across Kauai County and\nportions of the Big Island.\n \n3. Oahu: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue into\nearly Tuesday. Strong, damaging wind gusts could cause tree damage\nand power outages, especially in areas of higher terrain.\n \n4. Large waves will continue to produce life-threatening surf and\nrip current conditions during the next day or so along exposed\ncoasts of the Hawaiian Islands.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  08/0900Z 21.9N 160.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 12H  08/1800Z 24.1N 160.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  09/0600Z 26.3N 160.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  09/1800Z 27.7N 162.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  10/0600Z 28.2N 164.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 60H  10/1800Z 28.0N 167.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  11/0600Z 27.9N 169.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  12/0600Z 29.0N 171.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  13/0600Z 30.5N 173.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n \n"}