{"id": "1208441142568321026", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-08T09:00:00Z", "msg": "009\nWTPZ43 KNHC 080849\nTCDEP3\n \nTropical Storm Marie Discussion Number  29\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026\n200 AM PDT Tue Sep 08 2026\n \nThe satellite presentation of Marie continues to degrade as the \ncyclone continues to weaken. What is the left of the deep convection \nis very minimal and limited to the southeastern quadrant of the \nstorm. The latest TAFB Dvorak fix came in at T2.5/35 kt, and the \nobjective satellite estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the range of \n30-44 kt. The most recent scatterometer pass showed that there are \nstill some 35-kt winds and given that this pass only partially \ncaptured the storm, there could still be some stronger winds. \nTherefore, the initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt for this \nadvisory.\n \nThe storm continues its slow west-northwestward trek with an initial \nmotion estimate of around 300/7 kt. Marie is expected to turn more \nnorthwestward and move within the flow between a ridge extending \nwestward from the southwestern U.S. and a cutoff low to the west of \nthe tropical cyclone. The current NHC track forecast is similar to \nthe previous forecast track, and is close to the corrected model \nconsensus.\n \nMarie is expected to move over cooler waters for the next day or so, \nand based on the decreasing convection, it seems likely that the \nstorm will become post-tropical within the next 24 h. Unless deep \nconvection is able to return to the cyclone soon, Marie's \npost-tropical transition could occur even earlier than the official \nforecast. The current NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the \nprevious intensity forecast.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  08/0900Z 25.5N 126.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  08/1800Z 26.3N 127.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  09/0600Z 27.9N 128.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  09/1800Z 29.8N 129.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  10/0600Z 32.1N 131.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}