{"id": "1208296533944041474", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-07T21:00:00Z", "msg": "945\nWTPZ43 KNHC 072033\nTCDEP3\n \nTropical Storm Marie Discussion Number  27\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026\n200 PM PDT Mon Sep 07 2026\n \nVisible satellite imagery depicts Marie as a sheared system with a\nlow-level center that has recently become exposed to the northwest\nof the convective area. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity\nestimate from TAFB was 45 kt, while objective estimates from CIMSS\nrange from 38-52 kt. A recent ASCAT pass from METOP-B revealed max\nwinds near Marie's center at around 45 kt. Given the typical low\nbias in ASCAT due to its resolution, the initial intensity was set\nat 50 kt.\n \nMarie's initial motion estimate was 285/7 kt. The storm has moved\nmore westward since the last advisory, but is still forecast to turn\nto the northwest as a cutoff low from the northeast Pacific dives\ndown and interacts with Marie. The official NHC track forecast\nshifted slightly leftward due to the more westward initial motion,\nand is reflected mostly by a blend of the previous official forecast\nand HCCA.\n \nThe timing of Marie transitioning into a post-tropical storm was\nmoved up to 36 h as the cyclone moves into an increasingly hostile\nenvironment, and IR satellite imagery continues to depict degrading\nconvection. The latest NHC intensity forecast continues to hasten\nMarie's weakening within the first 24 h, before weakening becomes\nmore gradual upon the storm's post-tropical transition. This\nforecast generally falls in line with the model consensus.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  07/2100Z 24.8N 125.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  08/0600Z 25.2N 126.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  08/1800Z 26.3N 127.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  09/0600Z 28.0N 128.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 48H  09/1800Z 30.0N 129.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  10/0600Z 32.2N 131.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  10/1800Z 34.2N 133.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}