{"id": "1208229480399011842", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-07T15:00:00Z", "msg": "031\nWTPA44 PHFO 071452\nTCDCP4\n \nHurricane Lowell Discussion Number  46\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Mon Sep 07 2026\n \nLowell is a well-organized hurricane with a distinct eye and cold\ncloud tops in the eyewall, though overnight microwave imagery still\nshowed evidence of concentric eyewalls.  Intensity estimates are\nabout the same as 6 hours ago, so the initial wind speed is held at\n100 kt.  Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled\nto be in the cyclone in a few hours for a better estimate.\n \nThe initial motion is north-northeastward or 025/12 kt. A cut-off\nmid- to upper-level low is slowly moving westward to the north-\nnorthwest of Hawaii, which should allow the storm to gradually bend\nmore to north during the next 24 hours.  However, this northward\nturn has been delayed from expected, and the guidance has shifted\nabout 30 n mi to the east of the last forecast.  NHC's new forecast\nfollows that trend, bringing the hurricane closer to the western\nHawaiian Islands.  The new forecast necessitates a Tropical Storm\nWatch for Oahu, and any further eastward adjustments could require\na warning later today or this afternoon.  Beyond 2 days, Lowell\nshould swing westward as it merges with the upper-low, a few\nhundred miles north of the northwestern Hawaiian Islands.  The\nforecast is shifted westward at long range, and the system could be\nclose to dissipating as a tropical cyclone on day 5 based on the\nlatest global model forecast.\n \nLowell is starting to encounter increasing shear and cooling\nwaters, which should cause a gradual weakening today, though it is\nstill expected to be a large hurricane as it passes near or just\nwest of Niihau.  Rapid weakening is in the forecast after it moves\nnorth of the main Hawaiian Islands due to very strong shear and\nmarginal water temperatures.  Model guidance is in poor agreement in\nthe medium range due to the upper-level trough interaction, and\nlittle change is made to the last forecast at long range.\n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. The core of Lowell is forecast to pass near or just west of\nNiihau tonight and early Tuesday, and damaging hurricane conditions\nare expected to begin in Kauai County tonight and continue through\nTuesday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin\nlater today. Higher wind gusts are expected atop mountains and on\nwindward and leeward slopes.\n \n2. Periods of heavy rainfall will increase in coverage over the\nHawaiian Islands today and continue through Wednesday. This may\nproduce significant flash flooding and mudslides, especially across\nKauai county and portions of the Big Island.\n \n3. Large damaging waves are expected to impact exposed portions of\nKauai County and are likely to produce coastal flooding and\ninundation of low-lying areas through early Tuesday.\n \n4. Large swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip current\nconditions across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands during the\nnext several days.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  07/1500Z 17.5N 162.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  08/0000Z 19.5N 161.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  08/1200Z 22.4N 160.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  09/0000Z 25.1N 160.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  09/1200Z 27.0N 161.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 60H  10/0000Z 27.8N 163.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  10/1200Z 27.8N 166.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  11/1200Z 27.5N 170.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  12/1200Z 29.0N 172.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n \n"}