{"id": "1208225717702721538", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-07T15:00:00Z", "msg": "641\nWTPZ43 KNHC 071433\nTCDEP3\n \nTropical Storm Marie Discussion Number  26\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026\n800 AM PDT Mon Sep 07 2026\n \nLatest satellite imagery shows little change in Marie's structure\nover the last several hours. Convection can be seen flaring up\nacross the western and southern semicircles, with drier air evident\nwithin the storm's northern half. The latest subjective Dvorak\nintensity estimate from TAFB was 55 kt, while objective estimates\nfrom CIMSS range from 45-53 kt. Given the lack of significant\nchange in Marie's satellite presentation, the initial intensity\nestimate was held steady at 55 kt.\n \nThe initial motion estimate was 300/6 kt. Marie is forecast to\ncontinue to move west-northwestward over the next 24 hours before a\ncutoff low from the northeast Pacific is expected to shift the\nstorm's motion more northwestward. Guidance has generally favored a\nslight rightward shift in Marie's track beyond day 2 due to this\nanticipated interaction with the cutoff low, so the latest NHC track\nforecast reflects this, following a blend of HCCA, GDMI, and the\nprevious track forecast.\n \nWith Marie moving over cooler SSTs and increasing vertical wind\nshear, steady weakening is expected over the next couple of days.\nMarie is forecast to become post-tropical on Wednesday, before\ndissipating shortly thereafter. The latest NHC intensity forecast\nreflects a sharper weakening trend over the next 24 hours, before\nbecoming more gradual Tuesday into Wednesday. This generally\nfollows the model consensus.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  07/1500Z 24.7N 124.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  08/0000Z 25.1N 125.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  08/1200Z 25.9N 126.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  09/0000Z 27.4N 127.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  09/1200Z 29.3N 128.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 60H  10/0000Z 31.6N 130.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  10/1200Z 33.5N 131.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}