{"id": "1208157977573588994", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-07T09:00:00Z", "msg": "985\nWTPZ43 KNHC 070849\nTCDEP3\n \nTropical Storm Marie Discussion Number  25\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026\n200 AM PDT Mon Sep 07 2026\n\nMarie continues show signs of gradual weakening via satellite \nimagery. Based on the infrared satellite imagery, the convection \ncontinues to wane and water vapor shows that the dry air continues \nto intrude into the center of the storm. A partial ASCAT pass from \nMETOP-C showed that the winds on the western side of the storm are \nlimited to about 100 nm and some of the strongest wind speeds were \naround 45 kt. The most recent TAFB Dvorak fix came in at T3.5/55 kt, \nwhile the UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates are in the range of \n39-57 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity has been lowered to 55 kt \nfor this advisory. \n \nThe storm is moving slowly northwestward. A general northwestward\nmotion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the\nnext few days as Marie moves into a weakness in the subtropical\nridge toward a mid- to upper-level low. Only minor adjustments have \nbeen made to the current NHC track forecast compared to the \nprevious forecast and aligns with the HCCA and GDMI models. \n \nSteady weakening is expected to continue as Marie moves over \nprogressively cooler waters and into an even drier air mass over the \nnext few days. In addition, southwesterly vertical wind shear is \nanticipated to notably increase beginning Tuesday. The combination \nof these factors should lead to cyclone degenerating into a remnant \nlow, which is still predicted to occur by 60 hours. However, it is \npossible that this could occur sooner as the GFS simulated satellite \nimagery has Marie becoming post-tropical at an earlier time. The \ncurrent NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and is \nin line with most of the model guidance.\n \nWhile Marie is well away from land, large swells from the\nstorm have been affecting portions of the coast of the Baja\nCalifornia Peninsula and southern California. These conditions\nwill likely continue to cause dangerous beach conditions over the\nnext several days.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  07/0900Z 24.4N 123.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  07/1800Z 24.8N 124.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  08/0600Z 25.4N 125.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  08/1800Z 26.5N 126.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  09/0600Z 28.2N 127.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 60H  09/1800Z 30.4N 129.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  10/0600Z 32.4N 130.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  11/0600Z 36.0N 134.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}