{"id": "1208157974569713666", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-07T09:00:00Z", "msg": "984\nWTPA44 PHFO 070849\nTCDCP4\n \nHurricane Lowell Discussion Number  45\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 PM HST Sun Sep 06 2026\n \nIn satellite imagery, Lowell remains well organized with a \nwell-defined eye and cooling cloud tops in the eyewall. However, \nreports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show \nthat the storm has multiple concentric wind maxima around the eye \nand that the central pressure has slowly risen to near 950 mb.  The \nmaximum 700-mb flight-level winds reported by the plane were 107 kt \neast of the center. Based on the aircraft reports, the initial \nintensity is set at 100 kt.\n\nThe initial motion is now north-northeastward or 020/8 kt. The \nsynoptic reasoning of the first part of the forecast track is \nunchanged from the previous advisory. A cutoff mid- to upper-level \nlow sliding west-southwest north of Hawaii is beginning to capture \nLowell, and this, combined with mid-level ridging to the \nhurricane's southeast should generally impart a faster north- \nnortheastward to northward motion to the storm for the next 24-48 h. \nThe track guidance envelope has shifted a little farther to the \neast, and the first 36 h or so of the new forecast track has been \nagain nudged eastward. After 48 h, the cut-off low is forecast to \nweaken and lift out, with Lowell turning westward as a ridge builds \nto the north. This portion of the forecast track lies a little \nsouth of the previous forecast.\n\nLowell is starting to encounter increasing shear, and this, combined \nwith gradually cooling sea surface temperatures along the forecast \ntrack, should cause weakening. However, Lowell is likely to remain a \nhurricane until after its closest approach to the Hawaiian Islands. \nAfter passing Hawaii, the intensity forecast becomes more uncertain, \nas the global models are in poor agreement on how the cyclone may \ninteract with one or more new mid- to upper-level troughs that are \nforecast to form nearby. For now, this part of the intensity \nforecast is little changed from the previous forecast.\n \nGiven another eastward shift in the track guidance and the forecast \nclose approach of hurricane-force winds to Niihau, a Hurricane \nWarning has been issued for Kauai County.\n \n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Lowell's center is forecast to pass just west of Kauai County\nlate Monday into early Tuesday. A Hurricane Warning is now in \neffect for Kauai County, including Kauai and Niihau, where \nhurricane conditions are possible are expected to begin Monday \nafternoon and continue through Tuesday morning. Enhanced wind gusts \nare possible atop mountains and on windward and leeward slopes.\n \n2. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Hurricane Lowell will \nincrease in coverage over the Hawaiian Islands tonight and continue \nthrough Wednesday. This may produce significant flash flooding and \nmudslides, especially across Kauai county and portions of the Big \nIsland.\n \n3. Large swells from Lowell are expected to produce life-threatening\nsurf and rip current conditions across portions of the Hawaiian\nIslands during the next several days. Surf along exposed portions\nof Kauai County could produce coastal flooding and inundation of\nlow-lying areas Monday through Monday night.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  07/0900Z 16.5N 163.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  07/1800Z 18.3N 162.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  08/0600Z 21.0N 161.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  08/1800Z 23.8N 161.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  09/0600Z 26.0N 161.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 60H  09/1800Z 27.3N 162.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  10/0600Z 27.7N 165.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  11/0600Z 27.4N 169.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  12/0600Z 27.7N 171.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n \n"}