{"id": "1208086296819236866", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-07T03:00:00Z", "msg": "196\nWTPA44 PHFO 070244\nTCDCP4\n \nHurricane Lowell Discussion Number  44\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Sun Sep 06 2026\n \nBefore departing Lowell, the final fix from the Air Force Reserve \nHurricane Hunter mission found the hurricane was mostly steady \nstate, with peak flight level winds of 109 kt and a minimum pressure \nstill at 948 mb. While a closed 30 n mi wide eye remains, there was \nevidence of a secondary wind maximum beginning to form on the recon \nflight, and a secondary convective ring can also be seen from a \nrecent AMSR3 microwave image, suggesting another eyewall replacement \ncycle may soon be underway. While the aircraft flight level winds \nsupport a maximum sustained wind of around 100 kt, the eastern side \nof Lowell was not fully sampled where the highest winds might be \npresent given the current motion. This assessment, combined with \nhigher satellite intensity estimates suggests maintaining the \nintensity at 105 kt this advisory.\n\nLowell is now moving a little east of due north this afternoon, \nestimated at 010 degrees at 8 kt. The synoptic situation continues \nto evolve as a cutoff mid- to upper-level low sliding west-southwest \nis beginning to capture Lowell, as mid-level ridging to the \nhurricane's southeast should generally impart a northward to \nnorth-northeastward motion over it for the next 24-48 h as Lowell \ngradually accelerates. Like this afternoon, there has been another \neastward shift in the guidance, with the HFIP Corrected Consensus \nApproach (HCCA) and Google DeepMind (GDMI) aids along with the HAFS \nhurricane-regional models on the eastern side of the guidance \nenvelope. Thus, the NHC official forecast has been shifted a little \nmore eastward in response to these model trends. After 48 h, the \ncutoff low influencing Lowell's motion is forecast to lift out, with \na mid-level ridge building back in to the north, which should result \nin the cyclone turning back to the northwest or even west in the \nlatter half of the forecast period. \n\nWhile vertical wind shear over Lowell is currently low, it is soon \nforecast to increase out of the southwest to above 30 kt in 24 h. \nThis shear, combined with the likelihood that Lowell may soon \nundergo another eyewall replacement cycle will likely lead to \nweakening, first slowly, and then a faster rate in the 24-48 h time \nframe. This solution is reflected in the latest NHC intensity \nforecast, which shows slow weakening tonight, but a faster rate of \nweakening by Monday night into Tuesday when the shear is expected to \nbe 30-40 kt over the hurricane. Regardless, Lowell is still forecast \nto be a hurricane when it makes it closest point of approach to the \nHawaii Islands on Monday night. After passing by, Lowell should \ncontinue to weaken below hurricane intensity, and there remain some \npossibility of the storm becoming post-tropical by the end of the \nforecast period, though significant uncertainty remain in the model \nguidance by the 120 h period.\n\nGiven the eastward shift in the track guidance and with the \nexpectation that Lowell's radii will also be larger on its eastern \nsemicircle, the risk of hurricane conditions for Kauai and Niihau \nhas increased, and a Hurricane Watch has now been issued for this \nportion of the Hawaiian Islands.\n \n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Lowell's center is forecast to pass just west of Kauai County \nlate Monday into early Tuesday. A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm \nWarning is now in effect for Kauai County, including Kauai and \nNiihau, where hurricane conditions are possible and tropical storm \nconditions are expected to begin Monday afternoon and continue \nthrough Tuesday morning. Wind gusts to hurricane force are also \npossible atop mountains and on windward and leeward slopes.\n \n2. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Hurricane Lowell will \nincrease in coverage over the Hawaiian Islands tonight and continue \nthrough Wednesday. This may produce significant flash flooding and \nmudslides, especially across Kauai county and portions of the Big \nIsland.\n \n3. Large swells from Lowell are expected to produce life-threatening\nsurf and rip current conditions across portions of the Hawaiian\nIslands during the next several days. Surf along exposed portions\nof Kauai County could produce coastal flooding and inundation of\nlow-lying areas Monday through Monday night.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  07/0300Z 15.9N 163.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 12H  07/1200Z 17.2N 163.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  08/0000Z 19.7N 162.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  08/1200Z 22.6N 161.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  09/0000Z 25.3N 161.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 60H  09/1200Z 27.0N 162.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  10/0000Z 27.8N 164.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  11/0000Z 27.8N 168.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  12/0000Z 28.0N 170.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n \n"}