{"id": "1208086106138148866", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-07T03:00:00Z", "msg": "189\nWTPZ43 KNHC 070243\nTCDEP3\n \nTropical Storm Marie Discussion Number  24\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026\n800 PM PDT Sun Sep 06 2026\n \nMarie continues to gradually lose strength due to cool waters and\nintrusions of dry air. The system still has a ragged eye feature,\nbut it has been losing definition over the past several hours. In\naddition, deep convection around the center is decreasing in\nintensity and coverage. The satellite intensity estimates have been\ndropping and currently range from about 45 to 65 kt. Based on a\nblend of that data and Marie's degraded appearance, the initial wind\nspeed is lowered to 60 kt, making Marie a tropical storm.\n \nThe storm is moving slowly northwestward. A general northwestward \nmotion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the \nnext few days as Marie moves into a weakness in the subtropical \nridge toward a mid- to upper-level low. Little change was made to \nthe previous track forecast, and this prediction lies on the \nnorthern side of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with HCCA \nand GDMI.\n\nAdditional steady weakening is expected as Marie moves over \nprogressively cooler waters and into an even drier air mass over \nthe next few days. In addition, southwesterly vertical wind shear \nis anticipated to notably increase beginning Tuesday. The \ncombination of these factors should lead to Marie degenerating into \na remnant low, which is now predicted to occur by 60 hours. The NHC \nintensity forecast is similiar to the previous one and generally in \nline with the bulk of the model guidance.\n\nEven though Marie is well away from land, large swells from the \nstorm have been affecting portions of the coast of the Baja \nCalifornia Peninsula and southern California. These conditions \nwill likely continue to cause dangerous beach conditions over the \nnext couple of days.  \n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  07/0300Z 24.2N 123.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  07/1200Z 24.6N 124.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  08/0000Z 25.1N 125.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  08/1200Z 26.0N 126.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  09/0000Z 27.4N 127.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 60H  09/1200Z 29.4N 128.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  10/0000Z 31.6N 129.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  11/0000Z 35.3N 133.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}