{"msg": "515\nAXPZ20 KNHC 062203\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Sun Sep 6 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2145 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Marie is centered near 24.0N 122.9W, or about 480 nm\nwest-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico at 06/2100 UTC, moving \nnorthwest at 06 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 \nmb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. \nPeak seas are to near 28 ft (8.5 m). Latest satellite imagery \nshows numerous moderate to isolated strong convection within 120 \nnm of the center in the SE quadrant. Scattered moderate \nconvection is seen elsewhere within 60 nm of the center, except \n90 nm in the SW quadrant. Marie is forecast to turn toward the \nwest-northwest tonight before resuming a northwestward heading \nat a faster forward speed in Tue. Steady weakening is expected to\ncontinue for the next several days. Marie is forecast to become \na post-tropical remnant low on Wed. Swells generated by Marie \nwill continue to affect portions of the coast of southwest \nMexico, the Baja California Peninsula, and Southern California \nfor the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life- \nthreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult \nproducts from your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nMarie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\n \nA tropical wave has its axis along 107.5W from 04N to 19N. It is\nmoving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers and \nthunderstorms are seen from 12N to 18N between 103W and 110W. \nIsolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere from 10N to 19N \nbetween 103W and 111W.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from near northwest Colombia,\nwestward across northern Panama, and continues to 10N85W to \n10N96W to 11N102W to 10N113W to 11N123W to 10N130W and to beyond\n09N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is\npresent from the Equator to 09n west of 115W. Scattered moderate\nto isolated strong convection is from 02N to 08N between 77W-88W.\nScattered moderate convection is from 10N to 18N between\n92W-110W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for information on \nHurricane Marie centered about 480 nm west-southwest of Punta\nEugenia, Mexico.\nFresh to strong southeast to south winds on the outer fringe \nof Hurricane Marie are over the outer offshore waters from \nPunta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro. Seas within these winds are\n8 to 12 ft in southwest to west swell. Moderate or weaker winds \nand rough seas in southwest to west swell are over the rest of \nthe Baja California offshore waters. Over the remainder of the\nMexican offshore waters, moderate or lighter winds and slight to\nmoderate seas are prevalent.\nIsolated showers and thunderstorms are over Baja California Sur, \nand over the southern portion of the Gulf of California.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Marie is forecast to weaken to\nto a tropical storm near 24.4N 123.7W late tonight, move to near\n25.0N 124.9W Mon afternoon with maximum sustained winds 45 kt \ngusts 55 kt, to near 25.6N 126.3W late Mon night, to near 26.7N \n127.4W Tue afternoon with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 \nkt, to near 28.6N 128.4W late Tue night, then weaken to a remnant\nlow near 30.7N 129.4W Wed afternoon. Elsewhere, moderate to \nfresh winds are expected to briefly develop over the nearshore \nwaters of Baja California and in the northern Gulf of California \nearly this week as Marie moves farther away from the forecast \nwaters. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is \nexpected to begin by around the middle portion of the upcoming \nweek. Looking ahead, a trough of low pressure located several \nhundred nautical miles south- southwest of the coast of \nsouthwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and \nthunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible, \nand a tropical depression could form during the middle or latter \nportions of this week while the system moves generally west-\nnorthwestward.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nEarlier satellite Ascat data captured fresh northeast to east \nwinds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with \nthese winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to \nmoderate seas prevail. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are \naffecting much of the offshore waters of Central America and \nColombia, some of which may be accompanied by gusty winds and \nhigher seas.\nFor the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support \nmoderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across the \nGulf of Papagayo region through the next several days. Building \nridging by the middle of the week will result in strong gap \nwinds and rough seas there, with winds possibly reaching near \ngale Wed night. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh southerly winds are\nexpected across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos \nTue through Wed. Moderate or lighter winds are expected\nelsewhere.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for information about\nHurricane Marie located about 480 nm west-southwest of Punta \nEugenia, Mexico.\nOutside from marine impacts attributed to Hurricane Marie over \nthe northeast portion of this part of the region, fresh cyclonic\nwinds and rough seas persist from 21N to 28N and west of 138W \nassociated with the outer eastern quadrant of Tropical Storm \nKarina that continues to move farther away from the eastern \nPacific basin. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds with seas of \n5 to 7 ft are prevalent across the remainder of the tropical \neastern Pacific.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Marie is near 24.0N 122.9W, or\nabout 480 nm west-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico at 2 PM \nPDT, and is moving northwest at 06 kt. Maximum sustained winds \nare 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the minimum central pressure \nis 980 mb. Marie will weaken to a tropical storm near 24.4N \n123.7W late tonight, move to near 25.0N 124.9W Mon afternoon with\nmaximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt, to near 25.6N 126.3W \nlate Mon night, to near 26.7N 127.4W Tue afternoon with maximum \nsustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, to near 28.6N 128.4W late Tue \nnight, then weaken to a remnant low near 30.7N 129.4W Wed \nafternoon.\nLooking ahead, cross equatorial swell will produce seas to 8 ft \nin the southern waters west of about 100W during much of the \nweek. A trough of low pressure located several hundred nautical \nmiles south- southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico is \nproducing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual \ndevelopment of this system is possible, and a tropical depression\ncould form during the middle or latter portions of this week \nwhile the system moves generally west-northwestward.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1208030996098646018", "issued": "2026-09-06T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1208030996098646018"}