{"id": "1208016003005054978", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-06T21:00:00Z", "msg": "218\nWTPA44 PHFO 062047\nTCDCP4\n \nHurricane Lowell Discussion Number  43\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Sun Sep 06 2026\n\nAn Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission is currently\ninvestigating Lowell and on their first pass through the eye found\nthat the central pressure has risen to 948 mb. The highest 700-mb\nflight-level wind so far is 109 kt. Satellite images show that the\neye has grown in size this morning and is now about 30 n mi in\ndiameter. Based on the rise in pressure and the flight-level winds\nmeasured on this and the previous mission, the initial intensity is\nnow set at 105 kt.\n \nLowell has turned toward the north with an estimated motion of\n350/5 kt. The steering continues to be dominated by a cutoff\nmid-/upper-level low located north-northeast of Hawaii, which is\nforecast to move west-southwestward and cause Lowell to accelerate\ntoward the north and north-northeast through Monday night. The\ntrack guidance has shifted a bit to the east again, and the\ntypically better-performing HCCA and GDMI models as well as HAFS-A\nand -B lie along the eastern edge of the envelope. The NHC official\nforecast has also been nudged eastward to account for recent model\ntrends. The wind risk for Kauai and Niihau has trended upward based\non the latest track and size forecast, with the 50-kt wind radii now\ncrossing Niihau in about 36 hours. Accounting for the potential\nof additional eastward shifts, as well as the terrain, there \nis an increasing chance of gusts to hurricane force on those \nislands.\n \nAfter the center passes the Hawaiian Islands, model guidance is in\ngood agreement that Lowell will turn westward by early Friday,\nbut there is some disagreement on the sharpness of that turn.\n \nLowell's intensity is expected to remain fairly steady for the next \n12 hours before south-southwesterly shear increases. Gradual \nweakening should begin by tonight, and the NHC intensity forecast \nhas generally been adjusted toward the latest IVCN, HCCA, and GDMI \nguidance. Lowell is now expected to weaken to a tropical storm by \nearly Wednesday, after passing the Hawaiian Islands, due to the \neffects of continued shear and dry air. Some models are even \nsuggesting that Lowell could lose deep convection and become \npost-tropical by day 5, but since there is a lot of uncertainty, the \nofficial forecast continues to keep tropical status through the \nforecast period.\n \n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Lowell's center is forecast to pass just west of Kauai County \nlate Monday into early Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is in \neffect for Kauai County, including Kauai and Niihau, where tropical \nstorm conditions are expected to begin Monday afternoon and \ncontinue through Tuesday morning. Wind gusts to hurricane force \nare possible atop mountains and on windward and leeward slopes.\n \n2. Heavy rainfall associated with Lowell will begin to impact the \nHawaiian Islands today and continue through early this week. Periods \nof heavy rain may produce significant flash flooding and mudslides, \nespecially across Kauai County and portions of the Big Island.\n \n3. Large swells from Lowell are expected to produce life-threatening\nsurf and rip current conditions across portions of the Hawaiian\nIslands during the next several days. Surf along exposed portions\nof Kauai County could produce coastal flooding and inundation of \nlow-lying areas Monday through Monday night.\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  06/2100Z 15.2N 163.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 12H  07/0600Z 16.3N 163.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 24H  07/1800Z 18.5N 162.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  08/0600Z 21.4N 161.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  08/1800Z 24.2N 161.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 60H  09/0600Z 26.4N 162.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  09/1800Z 27.6N 163.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  10/1800Z 28.0N 167.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  11/1800Z 27.9N 170.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n \n"}