{"id": "1208013836514295810", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-06T21:00:00Z", "msg": "835\nWTPZ43 KNHC 062036\nTCDEP3\n \nHurricane Marie Discussion Number  23\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026\n200 PM PDT Sun Sep 06 2026\n \nSatellite imagery shows that Marie continues to gradually lose \nconvective organization. The latest subjective Dvorak estimate from \nTAFB is 65 kt, and objective intensity estimates have fallen to the \n55-62 range. A 1734 UTC partial ASCAT-B overpass shows some 50-kt \nvectors in the eastern semicircle.  The initial intensity is lowered \nto a possibly generous 65 kt for this advisory.\n\nMarie is still moving northwestward, with an initial motion \nestimate of 315/6 kt.  A bend more to the west-northwest is expected \ntonight as the mid- to upper-level trough north of Marie currently \ncausing the northwestward motion moves eastward on Monday and \nloosens its grip on Marie.  Then, another mid- to upper-level low \nwill strengthen over the Pacific to the northwest of Marie, causing \na turn back toward the northwest, or possibly north-northwest on \nTuesday.  The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one \nand closely follows the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) and Google \nDeepMind Ensemble Mean (GDMI).  Based on the spread in the guidance, \nconfidence in the track forecast is near average.\n \nMarie is traveling over 25 C sea-surface temperatures and through a \ndry airmass.  The cyclone will continue moving over progressively \ncooler water and into a progressively drier airmass over the next \ncouple of days.  Therefore, continued steady weakening is forecast.  \nAlthough vertical wind shear is weak right now, southwesterly shear \nis forecast to increase in 36-48 h as Marie approaches the \naforementioned mid- to upper-level low to its northwest.  Little to \nno change has been made to the previous NHC intensity forecast.  \nThis forecast lies near the higher end of the guidance suite.  Marie \nis now forecast to lose it's convection and become a post-tropical \nremnant low by day 3 (Wednesday).  After the system becomes \npost-tropical, global models show it weakening and dissipating in 4 \nto 5 days.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  06/2100Z 24.0N 122.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  07/0600Z 24.4N 123.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  07/1800Z 25.0N 124.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  08/0600Z 25.6N 126.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  08/1800Z 26.7N 127.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 60H  09/0600Z 28.6N 128.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  09/1800Z 30.7N 129.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  10/1800Z 34.6N 132.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}