{"id": "1208012951454842882", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-06T21:00:00Z", "msg": "752\nWTPA45 PHFO 062031\nTCDCP5\n \nTropical Storm Karina Discussion Number  42\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP112026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Sun Sep 06 2026\n\nKarina continues to lack deep convection as it moves through a dry \nairmass.  The latest subjective intensity estimates are a consensus \n35 kt from PHFO and JTWC, while objective intensity estimates range \nfrom 32-41 kt.  The initial intensity is reduced to 45 kt for this \nadvisory.\n \nKarina has slowed down and turned west-northwestward with an initial \nmotion estimate of 300/5 kt.  A westward to west-northwestward \nmotion with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next \nday or so as Karina gets pulled westward by a mid-level low to its \nwest and ridging builds in to the north of Karina.  The track \nforecast is similar to the previous one and is close to the HCCA and \nthe GDMI.\n \nKarina will continue moving through a very dry airmass, over the \nnext day or two.  This, combined with a continuation of moderate \nwest-southwesterly wind shear and sea-surface temperatures in the \n25-26C range should lead to continued weakening, and Karina is \nunlikely to redevelop any significant deep convection.  Therefore, \nthe NHC forecast now calls for Karina to become post-tropical within \nthe next 12 h.  The cyclone is likely to hold onto gale-force winds \nfor another 24-30 h as it gradually spins down.  By Tuesday, the low \nshould dissipate when it gets sheared apart by the combination of a \npowerful mid- to upper-level trough and outflow from Hurricane \nLowell.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  06/2100Z 22.9N 145.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  07/0600Z 23.0N 146.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 24H  07/1800Z 23.3N 148.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 36H  08/0600Z 23.9N 151.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}