{"msg": "454\nAXPZ20 KNHC 061605\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Sun Sep 6 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1545 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Marie is centered near 23.5N 122.5W, or about 700 nm \nwest of the southern tip of Baja California at 06/1500 UTC, \nmoving northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is \n977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 \nkt. Peak seas are to near 29 ft. Latest satellite imagery reveals \nthat Marie has become less organized since 24 hours ago. Numerous \nmoderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 90 nm of \nthe center in the NE quadrant, 180 nm of the center in the SE \nquadrants and and 120 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. Marie \nis forecast to turn toward the west-northwest tonight. Marie is \nthen expected to resume a northwestward heading at a faster \nforward speed by Tue. Steady weakening is expected to continue \nfor the next several days. Marie is forecast to become a post-\ntropical remnant low on Wed.S wells generated by Marie will \ncontinue to affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico, the\nBaja California Peninsula, and Southern California for the next \nfew days. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf\nand rip current conditions. Please consult products from your \nlocal weather office.\nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nMarie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\n \nA tropical has its axis along 107W from 04N to 19N. It is moving \nwestward near 10 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are near \nthe wave axis, and from 19N to 21N between the coastal waters of\nJalisco and 108W.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from near northwest Colombia,\nwest-southwestward through northern Panama, and to 09N84W to \n10N103W to 09N111W and to 12N118W. It resumes to the southwest of\nMarie at 13N126W to 10N134W and to 12N140W. Numerous moderate to\nstrong convection is from 01N to 07N between 130W-140W, from 03N\nto 09N between 77W-83W, from 05N to 09N between 83W-90W, and \nwithin 120 nm north of the trough between 90W-98W. Scattered \nmoderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N to 08N between\n113W-130W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for information on \nHurricane Marie centered well west of the southern tip of \nBaja California, Mexico.\nHurricane Marie is producing moderate to locally strong cyclonic \nwinds and very rough seas across the far offshore waters of Baja \nCalifornia, especially west of 116W and south of 27N. In the rest of \nthe Baja California waters, moderate or weaker winds and rough seas \nare noted. In the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, moderate \nor lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.\nIsolated showers and thunderstorms are along and just offshore \nBaja California Sur.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Marie is forecast to weaken to a \ntropical storm near 24.1N 123.2W this evening with maximum \nsustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt, and continue to weaken as it \nmoves to near 24.7N 124.3W Mon morning, to near 25.3N 125.7W Mon \nevening with maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt, to near \n26.3N 127.0W Tue morning, to near 27.7N 127.9W Tue evening, to \nnear 29.7N 128.9W Wed morning with maximum sustained winds 35 kt \ngusts 45 kt. Marie is forecast to weaken to a remnant low N of \nthe area by early on Thu. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds are\nexpected to briefly develop over the nearshore waters of Baja \nCalifornia and in the northern Gulf of California early this week\nas Marie moves farther away from the forecast waters. The next \ngap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to begin by\naround the middle portion of the upcoming week. Looking ahead, a\ntrough of low several hundred miles south-southwest of the coast\nof southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and \nthunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible, \nand a tropical depression could form during the middle or latter \nportions of this week while the system moves generally west-\nnorthwestward.\n\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nA recent Ascat scatterometer passe captured fresh northeast to\neast winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas are 5 to 7 ft \nwith these winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight\nto moderate seas prevail. Scattered showers and thunderstorms \nare affecting much of the offshore waters of Central America and \nColombia, some of which may be accompanied by gusty winds and \nhigher seas.\nFor the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support \nmoderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across the \nGulf of Papagayo region through the next several days. Building \nridge by the middle of the week will result in strong gap winds \nand rough seas. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh southerly winds are \nexpected across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos \nIslands through at least midweek, diminishing some today through \nMon. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds will prevail.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for information about\nHurricane Marie located well west of the southern tip of \nBaja California, Mexico.\nOutside from marine impacts attributed to Hurricane Marie over \nthe northeast portion of this part of the region, fresh cyclonic\nwinds and rough seas persist from 21N to 28N and west of 138W \nassociated with the outer eastern quadrant of Tropical Storm \nKarina that continues to move farther away from the eastern \nPacific basin. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds with seas of \n5 to 7 ft are prevalent across the remainder of the tropical \neastern Pacific.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Marie is near 23.5N 122.5W, or about\n700 nm west of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico at 8 \nAM PDT, and is moving northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds \nare 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt, and the minimum central pressure \nis 977 mb. Marie will weaken to a tropical storm near 24.1N \n123.2W this evening with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 \nkt, and continue to weaken as it moves to near 24.7N 124.3W Mon \nmorning, to near 25.3N 125.7W Mon evening with maximum sustained \nwinds 45 kt gusts 55 kt, to near 26.3N 127.0W Tue morning, to \nnear 27.7N 127.9W Tue evening, to near 29.7N 128.9W Wed morning \nwith maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Marie is forecast\nto weaken to a remnant low N of the area by early on Thu.\nLooking ahead, cross equatorial swell will produce seas to 8 ft \nin the southern waters west of 100W during much of the week. A \ntrough of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the\ncoast of southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers \nand thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is \npossible, and a tropical depression could form during the middle \nor latter portions of this week while the system moves generally \nwest-northwestward.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1207960593676271618", "issued": "2026-09-06T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1207960593676271618"}