{"id": "1207946291391102978", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-06T15:00:00Z", "msg": "753\nWTPZ43 KNHC 061452\nTCDEP3\n \nHurricane Marie Discussion Number  22\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026\n800 AM PDT Sun Sep 06 2026\n\nMarie has become less organized since the previous advisory and no \nlonger has an eye.  In fact, the northwest quadrant is completely \nvoid of deep convection.  The latest subjective and objective \nsatellite intensity estimates range from 59-77 kt.  The initial \nintensity is lowered to 70 kt for this advisory.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is northwestward, or 310 degrees at 8 \nkt. Marie is currently feeling some pull by a mid- to upper-level \ntrough currently over the U.S. west coast.  As that trough moves \neastward on Monday and loosens its grip on Marie, the cyclone should \nturn back toward the west-northwest for a day or so.  Then, another \nmid- to upper-level low will strengthen over the Pacific to the \nnorthwest of Marie, causing a turn back toward the northwest, or \npossibly north-northwest on Tuesday.  The NHC track forecast is very \nsimilar to the previous one and closely follows the HFIP Corrected \nConsensus (HCCA) and Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean (GDMI).  Based on \nthe spread in the guidance, confidence in the track forecast is near \naverage.\n \nMarie has already crossed the 26C isotherm, and currently resides \nwithin a dry, low-shear environment.  Marie will move into steadily \ndecreasing water temperatures and even drier air over the next few \ndays.  Around hour 48, southwesterly vertical wind shear will \nincrease significantly as Marie approaches the aforementioned mid- \nto upper-level low to its northwest.  A slightly lower intensity is \nshown in the 12-36 hour time period, mainly due to the weaker \ninitial intensity along with expected steady weakening over the next \ncouple of days, although the NHC intensity forecast is still at the \nhigh end of model suite during that time.  Marie could hang on as a \n35-40 kt tropical storm in the 48 to 72 h period as the upper-level \nlow may briefly provide some favorable dynamics before the shear \nbecomes too strong.  The simulated satellite imagery from the GFS \nand ECMWF models suggest that Marie should lose its convection and \nbecome a post-tropical remnant low just beyond the hour 72 point, so \nNHC will continue to show post-tropical after that time.  After the \nsystem becomes post-tropical, global models show it weakening and \ndissipating in 4 to 5 days.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  06/1500Z 23.5N 122.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  07/0000Z 24.1N 123.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  07/1200Z 24.7N 124.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  08/0000Z 25.3N 125.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  08/1200Z 26.3N 127.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 60H  09/0000Z 27.7N 127.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  09/1200Z 29.7N 128.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  10/1200Z 33.6N 131.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}