{"id": "1207945605066162178", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-06T15:00:00Z", "msg": "704\nWTPA45 PHFO 061448\nTCDCP5\n \nTropical Storm Karina Discussion Number  41\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP112026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Sun Sep 06 2026\n \nKarina's convection has decreased significantly in coverage and \nintensity.  Deep convection is nearly completely gone, but moderate \nconvection with cloud tops between -10C and -30C remain on Karina's \nnorth side.  The latest subjective and objective satellite intensity \nestimates range from 35-45 kt.  However, out of respect for the \nlarge area of 50-53 kt wind vectors on the two ASCAT passes from \naround 07Z, the intensity is held at 50 kt for this advisory.\n \nModerate west-southwesterly shear, sea-surface temperatures in the \n25-26C range and the dry air mass Karina is embedded in will cause \nthe cyclone to continue weakening.  It is possible that the dry \nairmass could prevent any deep convection from re-forming.  The GFS \nand ECMWF models both agree that Karina should lose its convection \nin 12 to 24 h.  Although the NHC forecast for Karina becoming \npost-tropical has moved up to 24 h, the gales should continue a bit \nlonger.  The low is expected to dissipate by hour 60 as it gets \nsheared apart by the combination of a powerful mid- to upper-level \ntrough and outflow from Hurricane Lowell.\n\nKarina's initial motion is northwestward, or 305 degrees at 6 kt.  A \nturn toward the west-northwest or west is expected by tonight as \nKarina gets pulled westward by a mid-level low to its west and \nridging builds in to the north of Karina. The track forecast is \nsimilar to the previous one and is close to the HCCA and the GDMI.\n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  06/1500Z 22.7N 145.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  07/0000Z 23.0N 146.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  07/1200Z 23.2N 147.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 36H  08/0000Z 23.5N 150.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 48H  08/1200Z 24.2N 152.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}